The global markets failed to follow through on yesterday’s rally in U.S. stocks. Most major equity indices are in the red today (S&P 500 futures -15 points), and long-end Treasury yields are modestly lower. The same themes continue to drive jitters in equity markets, including higher wages/inflation, rising federal deficits, higher Treasury yields, and tighter monetary policy. As such, tomorrow’s CPI report will be closely watched. Business sentiment remains robust in the wake of the new tax legislation. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2 points to 106.9, and within the survey, a record number of participants considered the current environment a “good time to expand” (record began in 1973).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
02/13/2018NFIB Small Business OptimismJan105.3106.9104.9
02/13/2018Revisions: Producer Price Index    
02/14/2018MBA Mortgage Applications9-Feb0.70%
02/14/2018CPI MoMJan0.30%0.10%
02/14/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJan0.20%0.30%
02/14/2018CPI YoYJan1.90%2.10%
02/14/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJan1.70%1.80%
02/14/2018CPI Index NSAJan247.599246.524
02/14/2018CPI Core Index SAJan254.426
02/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoMJan0.20%0.40%
02/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMJan0.50%0.40%
02/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasJan0.30%0.40%
02/14/2018Retail Sales Control GroupJan0.40%0.30%
02/14/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYJan0.70%
02/14/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYJan0.40%
02/14/2018Business InventoriesDec0.30%0.40%
02/15/2018Empire ManufacturingFeb17.917.7
02/15/2018Initial Jobless Claims10-Feb228k221k
02/15/2018Continuing Claims3-Feb1927k1923k
02/15/2018PPI Final Demand MoMJan0.40%-0.10%
02/15/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJan0.20%-0.10%
02/15/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMJan0.20%0.10%
02/15/2018PPI Final Demand YoYJan2.40%2.60%
02/15/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJan2.00%2.30%
02/15/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYJan2.30%
02/15/2018Philadelphia Fed Business OutlookFeb21.522.2
02/15/2018Industrial Production MoMJan0.20%0.90%
02/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionJan0.30%0.10%
02/15/2018Capacity UtilizationJan78.00%77.90%
02/15/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort11-Feb54.4
02/15/2018NAHB Housing Market IndexFeb7272
02/15/2018Total Net TIC FlowsDec$33.8b
02/15/2018Net Long-term TIC FlowsDec$57.5b
02/16/2018Import Price Index MoMJan0.60%0.10%
02/16/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMJan0.10%-0.20%
02/16/2018Import Price Index YoYJan2.90%3.00%
02/16/2018Export Price Index MoMJan0.30%-0.10%
02/16/2018Export Price Index YoYJan2.60%
02/16/2018Housing StartsJan1235k1192k
02/16/2018Housing Starts MoMJan3.60%-8.20%
02/16/2018Building PermitsJan1300k1302k
02/16/2018Building Permits MoMJan0.00%-0.10%
02/16/2018U. of Mich. SentimentFeb P95.495.7
02/16/2018U. of Mich. Current ConditionsFeb P111.1110.5
02/16/2018U. of Mich. ExpectationsFeb P87.286.3
02/16/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationFeb P2.70%
02/16/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationFeb P2.50%