The global markets failed to follow through on yesterday’s rally in U.S. stocks. Most major equity indices are in the red today (S&P 500 futures -15 points), and long-end Treasury yields are modestly lower. The same themes continue to drive jitters in equity markets, including higher wages/inflation, rising federal deficits, higher Treasury yields, and tighter monetary policy. As such, tomorrow’s CPI report will be closely watched. Business sentiment remains robust in the wake of the new tax legislation. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2 points to 106.9, and within the survey, a record number of participants considered the current environment a “good time to expand” (record began in 1973).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
| 02/13/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Jan | 105.3 | 106.9 | 104.9 |
| 02/13/2018 | Revisions: Producer Price Index | ||||
| 02/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 9-Feb | — | — | 0.70% |
| 02/14/2018 | CPI MoM | Jan | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 02/14/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Jan | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 02/14/2018 | CPI YoY | Jan | 1.90% | — | 2.10% |
| 02/14/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Jan | 1.70% | — | 1.80% |
| 02/14/2018 | CPI Index NSA | Jan | 247.599 | — | 246.524 |
| 02/14/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | Jan | — | — | 254.426 |
| 02/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Jan | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 02/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Jan | 0.50% | — | 0.40% |
| 02/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Jan | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 02/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | Jan | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 02/14/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Jan | — | — | 0.70% |
| 02/14/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Jan | — | — | 0.40% |
| 02/14/2018 | Business Inventories | Dec | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 02/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | Feb | 17.9 | — | 17.7 |
| 02/15/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 10-Feb | 228k | — | 221k |
| 02/15/2018 | Continuing Claims | 3-Feb | 1927k | — | 1923k |
| 02/15/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Jan | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 02/15/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Jan | 0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 02/15/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Jan | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 02/15/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Jan | 2.40% | — | 2.60% |
| 02/15/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Jan | 2.00% | — | 2.30% |
| 02/15/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Jan | — | — | 2.30% |
| 02/15/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | Feb | 21.5 | — | 22.2 |
| 02/15/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | Jan | 0.20% | — | 0.90% |
| 02/15/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | Jan | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 02/15/2018 | Capacity Utilization | Jan | 78.00% | — | 77.90% |
| 02/15/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 11-Feb | — | — | 54.4 |
| 02/15/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Feb | 72 | — | 72 |
| 02/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | Dec | — | — | $33.8b |
| 02/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | Dec | — | — | $57.5b |
| 02/16/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | Jan | 0.60% | — | 0.10% |
| 02/16/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | Jan | 0.10% | — | -0.20% |
| 02/16/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | Jan | 2.90% | — | 3.00% |
| 02/16/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | Jan | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 02/16/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | Jan | — | — | 2.60% |
| 02/16/2018 | Housing Starts | Jan | 1235k | — | 1192k |
| 02/16/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | Jan | 3.60% | — | -8.20% |
| 02/16/2018 | Building Permits | Jan | 1300k | — | 1302k |
| 02/16/2018 | Building Permits MoM | Jan | 0.00% | — | -0.10% |
| 02/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Feb P | 95.4 | — | 95.7 |
| 02/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Feb P | 111.1 | — | 110.5 |
| 02/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Feb P | 87.2 | — | 86.3 |
| 02/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Feb P | — | — | 2.70% |
| 02/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Feb P | — | — | 2.50% |