February 13, 2020 Headlines

Market sentiment turned negative again overnight after China released “revised methodology” for counting coronavirus cases that increased the total number by 14,800 in one day (48,206 total cases).  Major overseas equity benchmarks are lower on the day (none greater than 1% decline), and S&P 500 futures are 50 bps lower ahead of the open. The 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 5 bps at one point overnight but is now just 1 bps lower from yesterday’s close following the release of new inflation data. CPI excluding food and energy (core) rise 0.2% month-over-month in January (as expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core prices held steady at 2.3% versus an expected decline to 2.2%. The headline CPI measure jumped 20 bps to 2.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2018. John Williams (NY Fed) and Robert Kaplan (Dallas Fed) will be speaking at separate events today, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold initial hearings today on the White House’s nominees for the Board of Governors, Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

2/11/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism103.5104.3102.7
2/11/2020Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/11/2020Mortgage Delinquencies3.77%3.97%
2/11/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.78%0.84%
2/11/2020JOLTS Job Openings6925642368006787
2/12/2020MBA Mortgage Applications1.10%5.00%
2/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$10.0b-$32.6b$8.7b
2/13/2020CPI MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
2/13/2020CPI YoY2.40%2.50%2.30%
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%2.30%
2/13/2020CPI Index NSA257.86257.97256.97
2/13/2020CPI Core Index SA266.45266.48265.92265.832
2/13/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.60%0.60%0.70%
2/13/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.00%0.00%0.10%
2/13/2020Initial Jobless Claims210k205k202k203k
2/13/2020Continuing Claims1734k1698k1751k1759k
2/13/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort65.766.5
2/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.30%
2/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.20%
2/14/2020Import Price Index YoY0.20%0.50%
2/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.20%-0.70%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.30%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.70%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.50%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.50%
2/14/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%-0.30%
2/14/2020Capacity Utilization76.80%77.00%
2/14/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%0.20%
2/14/2020Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020Business Inventories0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.499.8
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions114114.4
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Expectations9090.5
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%2.50%
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
2/14/2020Revisions — Producer Price Index



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