Market sentiment turned negative again overnight after China released “revised methodology” for counting coronavirus cases that increased the total number by 14,800 in one day (48,206 total cases). Major overseas equity benchmarks are lower on the day (none greater than 1% decline), and S&P 500 futures are 50 bps lower ahead of the open. The 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 5 bps at one point overnight but is now just 1 bps lower from yesterday’s close following the release of new inflation data. CPI excluding food and energy (core) rise 0.2% month-over-month in January (as expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core prices held steady at 2.3% versus an expected decline to 2.2%. The headline CPI measure jumped 20 bps to 2.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2018. John Williams (NY Fed) and Robert Kaplan (Dallas Fed) will be speaking at separate events today, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold initial hearings today on the White House’s nominees for the Board of Governors, Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
2/11/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103.5 | 104.3 | 102.7 | — |
2/11/2020 | Revisions: Consumer Price Index | ||||
2/11/2020 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | 3.77% | 3.97% | — |
2/11/2020 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | 0.78% | 0.84% | — |
2/11/2020 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6925 | 6423 | 6800 | 6787 |
2/12/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.10% | 5.00% | — |
2/12/2020 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$10.0b | -$32.6b | $8.7b | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.30% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.30% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 257.86 | 257.97 | 256.97 | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 266.45 | 266.48 | 265.92 | 265.832 |
2/13/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
2/13/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
2/13/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | 205k | 202k | 203k |
2/13/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1734k | 1698k | 1751k | 1759k |
2/13/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 65.7 | 66.5 | — |
2/14/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
2/14/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | -0.20% | — | -0.70% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
2/14/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 76.80% | — | 77.00% | — |
2/14/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | ||||
2/14/2020 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.4 | — | 99.8 | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 114 | — | 114.4 | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 90 | — | 90.5 | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.40% | — | 2.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Revisions — Producer Price Index |
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