February 13, 2020 Headlines

Market sentiment turned negative again overnight after China released “revised methodology” for counting coronavirus cases that increased the total number by 14,800 in one day (48,206 total cases).  Major overseas equity benchmarks are lower on the day (none greater than 1% decline), and S&P 500 futures are 50 bps lower ahead of the open. The 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 5 bps at one point overnight but is now just 1 bps lower from yesterday’s close following the release of new inflation data. CPI excluding food and energy (core) rise 0.2% month-over-month in January (as expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core prices held steady at 2.3% versus an expected decline to 2.2%. The headline CPI measure jumped 20 bps to 2.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2018. John Williams (NY Fed) and Robert Kaplan (Dallas Fed) will be speaking at separate events today, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold initial hearings today on the White House’s nominees for the Board of Governors, Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism103.5104.3102.7—
2/11/2020Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/11/2020Mortgage Delinquencies—3.77%3.97%—
2/11/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures—0.78%0.84%—
2/11/2020JOLTS Job Openings6925642368006787
2/12/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—1.10%5.00%—
2/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$10.0b-$32.6b$8.7b—
2/13/2020CPI MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%—
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%—
2/13/2020CPI YoY2.40%2.50%2.30%—
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%2.30%—
2/13/2020CPI Index NSA257.86257.97256.97—
2/13/2020CPI Core Index SA266.45266.48265.92265.832
2/13/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—0.60%0.60%0.70%
2/13/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.00%0.00%0.10%
2/13/2020Initial Jobless Claims210k205k202k203k
2/13/2020Continuing Claims1734k1698k1751k1759k
2/13/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—65.766.5—
2/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.30%—
2/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2020Import Price Index YoY0.20%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.20%—
2/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.20%—-0.70%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%—-0.30%—
2/14/2020Capacity Utilization76.80%—77.00%—
2/14/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2020Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020Business Inventories0.10%—-0.20%—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.4—99.8—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions114—114.4—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Expectations90—90.5—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%—2.50%—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.50%—
2/14/2020Revisions — Producer Price Index

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.