February 13, 2020 Headlines

Market sentiment turned negative again overnight after China released “revised methodology” for counting coronavirus cases that increased the total number by 14,800 in one day (48,206 total cases). Major overseas equity benchmarks are lower on the day (none greater than 1% decline), and S&P 500 futures are 50 bps lower ahead of the open. The 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 5 bps at one point overnight but is now just 1 bps lower from yesterday’s close following the release of new inflation data. CPI excluding food and energy (core) rise 0.2% month-over-month in January (as expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core prices held steady at 2.3% versus an expected decline to 2.2%. The headline CPI measure jumped 20 bps to 2.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2018. John Williams (NY Fed) and Robert Kaplan (Dallas Fed) will be speaking at separate events today, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold initial hearings today on the White House’s nominees for the Board of Governors, Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
2/11/2020	NFIB Small Business Optimism	103.5	104.3	102.7	—
2/11/2020	Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/11/2020	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	3.77%	3.97%	—
2/11/2020	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	0.78%	0.84%	—
2/11/2020	JOLTS Job Openings	6925	6423	6800	6787
2/12/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	1.10%	5.00%	—
2/12/2020	Monthly Budget Statement	-$10.0b	-$32.6b	$8.7b	—
2/13/2020	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.20%	—
2/13/2020	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.10%	—
2/13/2020	CPI YoY	2.40%	2.50%	2.30%	—
2/13/2020	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.20%	2.30%	2.30%	—
2/13/2020	CPI Index NSA	257.86	257.97	256.97	—
2/13/2020	CPI Core Index SA	266.45	266.48	265.92	265.832
2/13/2020	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	0.60%	0.60%	0.70%
2/13/2020	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%
2/13/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	205k	202k	203k
2/13/2020	Continuing Claims	1734k	1698k	1751k	1759k
2/13/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	65.7	66.5	—
2/14/2020	Import Price Index MoM	-0.20%	—	0.30%	—
2/14/2020	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	—	0.20%	—
2/14/2020	Import Price Index YoY	0.20%	—	0.50%	—
2/14/2020	Export Price Index MoM	-0.10%	—	-0.20%	—
2/14/2020	Export Price Index YoY	-0.20%	—	-0.70%	—
2/14/2020	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
2/14/2020	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.30%	—	0.70%	—
2/14/2020	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.30%	—	0.50%	—
2/14/2020	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	0.50%	—
2/14/2020	Industrial Production MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.30%	—
2/14/2020	Capacity Utilization	76.80%	—	77.00%	—
2/14/2020	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.10%	—	0.20%	—
2/14/2020	Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020	Business Inventories	0.10%	—	-0.20%	—
2/14/2020	U. of Mich. Sentiment	99.4	—	99.8	—
2/14/2020	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	114	—	114.4	—
2/14/2020	U. of Mich. Expectations	90	—	90.5	—
2/14/2020	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	2.40%	—	2.50%	—
2/14/2020	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
2/14/2020	Revisions — Producer Price Index

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