It was a relatively quiet overnight session in the broad markets with no major headlines/events. Most major equity indices are enjoying modest gains today, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 6 points. The same themes from earlier this week – increased odds of avoiding a government shutdown and optimism toward US/China trade negotiations – are boosting sentiment in risk markets (or at least reducing market anxiety/fear). On the trade front, the biggest remaining obstacle in the negotiations still appears to be some form of enforcement measure if the parties don’t adhere to the terms. However, with China’s economy struggling and the White House looking to maintain economic momentum heading into the 2020 elections, both sides appear motivated to get something done.

Headline CPI was unchanged month-over-month in January, but the core measure was up 0.2% m/m, as expected. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI was higher than expected, holding steady at 2.2%, and the 3-month annualized core reading rose to 2.7%, up from 2.6% the prior month and 1.6% last October.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
2/11/2019 Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/12/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 103 101.2 104.4 104.4
2/12/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 6846 7335 6888 7166
2/12/2019 Revisions: Producer Price Index
2/13/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.70% -2.50%
2/13/2019 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%
2/13/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
2/13/2019 CPI YoY 1.50% 1.60% 1.90%
2/13/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.10% 2.20% 2.20%
2/13/2019 CPI Core Index SA 260.603 260.701 260.027 260.078
2/13/2019 CPI Index NSA 251.625 251.712 251.233
2/13/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 1.90% 1.20% 1.40%
2/13/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.70% 1.10% 1.30%
2/13/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$11.0b -$204.9b
2/14/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
2/14/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
2/14/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.00%
2/14/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.10% 2.50%
2/14/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.50% 2.70%
2/14/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.70% 2.80%
2/14/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 234k
2/14/2019 Continuing Claims 1740k 1736k
2/14/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.10% 0.20%
2/14/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.00% 0.20%
2/14/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.50%
2/14/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.90%
2/14/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.2
2/14/2019 Business Inventories 0.20% 0.60%
2/14/2019 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.47%
2/14/2019 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 0.99%
2/15/2019 Empire Manufacturing 7 3.9
2/15/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.20% -1.00%
2/15/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.30%
2/15/2019 Import Price Index YoY -1.60% -0.60%
2/15/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.10% -0.60%
2/15/2019 Export Price Index YoY 1.10%
2/15/2019 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.30%
2/15/2019 Capacity Utilization 78.70% 78.70%
2/15/2019 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.00% 1.10%
2/15/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 93.5 91.2
2/15/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 111.6 108.8
2/15/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.5 79.9
2/15/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
2/15/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
2/15/2019 Net Long-term TIC Flows $37.6b
2/15/2019 Total Net TIC Flows $31.0b