It was a relatively quiet overnight session in the broad markets with no major headlines/events. Most major equity indices are enjoying modest gains today, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 6 points. The same themes from earlier this week – increased odds of avoiding a government shutdown and optimism toward US/China trade negotiations – are boosting sentiment in risk markets (or at least reducing market anxiety/fear). On the trade front, the biggest remaining obstacle in the negotiations still appears to be some form of enforcement measure if the parties don’t adhere to the terms. However, with China’s economy struggling and the White House looking to maintain economic momentum heading into the 2020 elections, both sides appear motivated to get something done.

Headline CPI was unchanged month-over-month in January, but the core measure was up 0.2% m/m, as expected. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI was higher than expected, holding steady at 2.2%, and the 3-month annualized core reading rose to 2.7%, up from 2.6% the prior month and 1.6% last October.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2019Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/12/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103101.2104.4104.4
2/12/2019JOLTS Job Openings6846733568887166
2/12/2019Revisions: Producer Price Index
2/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.70%-2.50%
2/13/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%0.00%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
2/13/2019CPI YoY1.50%1.60%1.90%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.20%2.20%
2/13/2019CPI Core Index SA260.603260.701260.027260.078
2/13/2019CPI Index NSA251.625251.712251.233
2/13/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.90%1.20%1.40%
2/13/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.70%1.10%1.30%
2/13/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$11.0b-$204.9b
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.20%-0.10%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.10%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand YoY2.10%2.50%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.70%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.80%
2/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k234k
2/14/2019Continuing Claims1740k1736k
2/14/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.20%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%0.20%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.50%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.90%
2/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.2
2/14/2019Business Inventories0.20%0.60%
2/14/2019Mortgage Delinquencies4.47%
2/14/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.99%
2/15/2019Empire Manufacturing73.9
2/15/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-1.00%
2/15/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.30%
2/15/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.60%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index YoY1.10%
2/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.30%
2/15/2019Capacity Utilization78.70%78.70%
2/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%1.10%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment93.591.2
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.6108.8
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.579.9
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
2/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$37.6b
2/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows$31.0b