Treasury prices are lower again today following a hotter-than-expected January inflation report, pushing 5-year and 10-year yields up 5 basis points. Not surprisingly, the report is weighing on equity markets as well, with S&P 500 futures currently down 25 points before the open. Headline CPI was up 0.5% m/m in January, boosted by a 3% increase in energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core CPI was up 0.3% m/m versus expectations for a 0.2% gain. At the same time, the prior month was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2% (i.e., January % gain impacted by lower base in December). On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 2.1% (1.9% expected), and core CPI held unchanged at 1.8% (1.7% expected).
The January retail sales data was less constructive. Advance sales fell 0.3% m/m (+0.2% expected), and the prior month was revised down from 0.4% to 0.0%. A 1.3% decline in autos/parts sales weighed on the headline figure, but other metrics within the report were disappointing as well. The control group, which feeds into the GDP calculation, was unchanged from the prior month (0.4% expected), and the December figure was revised 50 bps lower to -0.2%.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | $51.0b | $49.2b | $51.3b | — |
| 02/13 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105.3 | 106.9 | 104.9 | — |
| 02/13 | Revisions: Producer Price Index | ||||
| 02/14 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.10% | 0.70% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI YoY | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.10% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Index NSA | 247.599 | 247.867 | 246.524 | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Core Index SA | — | 255.287 | 254.426 | 254.398 |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/14 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | — | 17.7 | — |
| 02/15 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 221k | — |
| 02/15 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | — | 1923k | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.6 | — | 22.2 | — |
| 02/15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 02/15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | Capacity Utilization | 78.00% | — | 77.90% | — |
| 02/15 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 02/15 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 72 | — |
| 02/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $33.8b | — |
| 02/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $57.5b | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts | 1235k | — | 1192k | — |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.60% | — | -8.20% | — |
| 02/16 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1302k | 1300k |
| 02/16 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.3 | — | 95.7 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 111.1 | — | 110.5 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.2 | — | 86.3 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |