It was a relatively busy overnight session from a news perspective, and the broad financial markets have been more erratic as a result. Risk markets reacted positively to reports that President Trump is considering a 60-day extension to the tariff ceasefire with China (current agreement expires March 1), and China’s January trade data was much better than expected. However, Treasury prices are higher following another weak economic report from Germany, which posted a 0.2% GDP growth rate for Q4. Following a -0.2% growth rate in Q3, this just misses the technical definition of a recession. The December U.S. retail sales report was also disappointing. The report was delayed due to the government shutdown, and control group sales fell 1.4% m/m versus expectations of a 0.4% gain. The control group figure is more closely watched by many market participants because it is used in the GDP calculation.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/11/19 | Revisions: Consumer Price Index | ||||
| 02/12/19 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103 | 101.2 | 104.4 | 104.4 |
| 02/12/19 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6846 | 7335 | 6888 | 7166 |
| 02/12/19 | Revisions: Producer Price Index | ||||
| 02/13/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.70% | -2.50% | — |
| 02/13/19 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/13/19 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 02/13/19 | CPI YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.90% | — |
| 02/13/19 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.10% | 2.20% | 2.20% | — |
| 02/13/19 | CPI Core Index SA | 260.603 | 260.701 | 260.027 | 260.078 |
| 02/13/19 | CPI Index NSA | 251.625 | 251.712 | 251.233 | — |
| 02/13/19 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 1.90% | 1.20% | 1.40% |
| 02/13/19 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.70% | 1.10% | 1.30% |
| 02/13/19 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$11.0b | -$13.5b | -$23.2b | — |
| 02/14/19 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 02/14/19 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/14/19 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.00% | — |
| 02/14/19 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.10% | 2.00% | 2.50% | — |
| 02/14/19 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | 2.60% | 2.70% | — |
| 02/14/19 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 2.70% | 2.50% | 2.80% | — |
| 02/14/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 239k | 234k | 235k |
| 02/14/19 | Continuing Claims | 1740k | 1773k | 1736k | — |
| 02/14/19 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | -1.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 02/14/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.00% | -1.80% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 02/14/19 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | -1.40% | 0.50% | — |
| 02/14/19 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | -1.70% | 0.90% | 1.00% |
| 02/14/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.2 | — |
| 02/14/19 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 02/14/19-02/15/19 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 4.47% | — |
| 02/14/19-02/15/19 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 0.99% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Empire Manufacturing | 7 | — | 3.9 | — |
| 02/15/19 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.60% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Capacity Utilization | 78.70% | — | 78.70% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 02/15/19 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 93.5 | — | 91.2 | — |
| 02/15/19 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 111.6 | — | 108.8 | — |
| 02/15/19 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85.5 | — | 79.9 | — |
| 02/15/19 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 02/15/19 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/15/19 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $37.6b | — |
| 02/15/19 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $31.0b | — |