It was a relatively busy overnight session from a news perspective, and the broad financial markets have been more erratic as a result. Risk markets reacted positively to reports that President Trump is considering a 60-day extension to the tariff ceasefire with China (current agreement expires March 1), and China’s January trade data was much better than expected. However, Treasury prices are higher following another weak economic report from Germany, which posted a 0.2% GDP growth rate for Q4. Following a -0.2% growth rate in Q3, this just misses the technical definition of a recession. The December U.S. retail sales report was also disappointing. The report was delayed due to the government shutdown, and control group sales fell 1.4% m/m versus expectations of a 0.4% gain. The control group figure is more closely watched by many market participants because it is used in the GDP calculation.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
02/11/19Revisions: Consumer Price Index
02/12/19NFIB Small Business Optimism103101.2104.4104.4
02/12/19JOLTS Job Openings6846733568887166
02/12/19Revisions: Producer Price Index
02/13/19MBA Mortgage Applications-3.70%-2.50%
02/13/19CPI MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%0.00%
02/13/19CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
02/13/19CPI YoY1.50%1.60%1.90%
02/13/19CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.20%2.20%
02/13/19CPI Core Index SA260.603260.701260.027260.078
02/13/19CPI Index NSA251.625251.712251.233
02/13/19Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.90%1.20%1.40%
02/13/19Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.70%1.10%1.30%
02/13/19Monthly Budget Statement-$11.0b-$13.5b-$23.2b
02/14/19PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.10%-0.20%-0.10%
02/14/19PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%-0.10%0.00%
02/14/19PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%0.00%
02/14/19PPI Final Demand YoY2.10%2.00%2.50%
02/14/19PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.60%2.70%
02/14/19PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.50%2.80%
02/14/19Initial Jobless Claims225k239k234k235k
02/14/19Continuing Claims1740k1773k1736k
02/14/19Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%-1.20%0.20%0.10%
02/14/19Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%-1.80%0.20%0.00%
02/14/19Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%-1.40%0.50%
02/14/19Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-1.70%0.90%1.00%
02/14/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.2
02/14/19Business Inventories0.20%0.60%
02/14/19-02/15/19Mortgage Delinquencies4.47%
02/14/19-02/15/19MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.99%
02/15/19Empire Manufacturing73.9
02/15/19Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-1.00%
02/15/19Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.30%
02/15/19Import Price Index YoY-1.60%-0.60%
02/15/19Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.60%
02/15/19Export Price Index YoY1.10%
02/15/19Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.30%
02/15/19Capacity Utilization78.70%78.70%
02/15/19Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%1.10%
02/15/19U. of Mich. Sentiment93.591.2
02/15/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.6108.8
02/15/19U. of Mich. Expectations85.579.9
02/15/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
02/15/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
02/15/19Net Long-term TIC Flows$37.6b
02/15/19Total Net TIC Flows$31.0b