There was decent follow through to yesterday’s rally in U.S. stocks in global markets overnight. The Nikkei closed up 1.5%, and the Euro Stoxx is currently up 0.9% (S&P 500 futures +19 points). Yesterday U.S. stocks broke from the recent trend and finished higher despite a strong sell-off in long-end Treasuries. Yields are higher again this morning, although there has been better buying as the morning has progressed. Decent selling in Eurodollar futures overnight has pushed LIBOR fixings higher again today as well, with the 3-month rate up 2 bps to 1.87%, and the December 2018 Eurodollar contract is up to 2.47% (+10 bps over last two days). On the fiscal front, President Trump is said to be proposing a 25-cent hike in the gasoline tax during discussions with Congressional leaders to help pay for an infrastructure spending plan. According to the Washington Post, Republican leaders are lukewarm on the idea, particularly during an election year.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | $51.0b | $49.2b | $51.3b | — |
| 02/13 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105.3 | 106.9 | 104.9 | — |
| 02/13 | Revisions: Producer Price Index | ||||
| 02/14 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.10% | 0.70% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI YoY | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.10% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Index NSA | 247.604 | 247.867 | 246.524 | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Core Index SA | — | 255.287 | 254.426 | 254.398 |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/14 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 02/14 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 57 | 54.4 | — |
| 02/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | 13.1 | 17.7 | — |
| 02/15 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 230k | 221k | 223k |
| 02/15 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | 1942k | 1923k | 1927k |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | -0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.40% | 2.70% | 2.60% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.00% | 2.20% | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.50% | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.8 | 25.8 | 22.2 | — |
| 02/15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.90% | 0.40% |
| 02/15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/15 | Capacity Utilization | 78.00% | 77.50% | 77.90% | 77.70% |
| 02/15 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 72 | — |
| 02/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $33.8b | — |
| 02/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $57.5b | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts | 1235k | — | 1192k | — |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.60% | — | -8.20% | — |
| 02/16 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1302k | 1300k |
| 02/16 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.3 | — | 95.7 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 111.1 | — | 110.5 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.2 | — | 86.3 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |