Once again, the overnight headlines continue to focus on trade tensions between the US and China. Reports from China Central Television suggest a consensus in principle has been reached on the main topics as trade talks concluded which sent S&P 500 futures (+.43%) and yields higher. Talks are expected to resume in Washington next week to avert a tariff increase on Chinese goods that goes in effect after March 1st. Today’s economic calendar is full with the release of Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production, and The University of Michigan survey. On Monday, the Treasury market will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2019Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/12/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103101.2104.4104.4
2/12/2019JOLTS Job Openings6846733568887166
2/12/2019Revisions: Producer Price Index
2/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.70%-2.50%
2/13/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%0.00%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
2/13/2019CPI YoY1.50%1.60%1.90%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.20%2.20%
2/13/2019CPI Core Index SA260.603260.701260.027260.078
2/13/2019CPI Index NSA251.625251.712251.233
2/13/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.90%1.20%1.40%
2/13/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.70%1.10%1.30%
2/13/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$11.0b-$13.5b-$23.2b
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.10%-0.20%-0.10%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%-0.10%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand YoY2.10%2.00%2.50%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.60%2.70%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.50%2.80%
2/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k239k234k235k
2/14/2019Continuing Claims1740k1773k1736k
2/14/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%-1.20%0.20%0.10%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%-1.80%0.20%0.00%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%-1.40%0.50%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-1.70%0.90%1.00%
2/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6058.2
2/14/2019Business Inventories0.20%-0.10%0.60%
2/15/2019Empire Manufacturing78.83.9
2/15/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.50%-1.00%
2/15/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.70%0.30%
2/15/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.60%-1.70%-0.60%-0.50%
2/15/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.60%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index YoY-0.20%1.10%
2/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.10%-0.60%0.30%0.10%
2/15/2019Capacity Utilization78.70%78.20%78.70%78.80%
2/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%-0.90%1.10%0.80%
2/15/2019Mortgage Delinquencies4.06%4.47%
2/15/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.95%0.99%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment93.795.591.2
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.6110108.8
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.586.279.9
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%2.70%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%2.60%
2/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$37.6b
2/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows$31.0b