The Treasury curve is lower and flatter this morning pivoting around the 2-year part of the curve, with the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year now down to 67 bps from 72 bps as of yesterday’s close. This week was solid for inflation data, as CPI and PPI were both robust and today the Import Price index came in 0.4% higher than expected at 1% in January, with the big driver being higher oil prices. Rising import prices combined with higher consumer and producer prices contribute to a picture of rising inflation in the US.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | $51.0b | $49.2b | $51.3b | — |
| 02/13 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105.3 | 106.9 | 104.9 | — |
| 02/13 | Revisions: Producer Price Index | ||||
| 02/14 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.10% | 0.70% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI YoY | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.10% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Index NSA | 247.604 | 247.867 | 246.524 | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Core Index SA | — | 255.287 | 254.426 | 254.398 |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/14 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 02/14 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 57 | 54.4 | — |
| 02/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | 13.1 | 17.7 | — |
| 02/15 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 230k | 221k | 223k |
| 02/15 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | 1942k | 1923k | 1927k |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | -0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.40% | 2.70% | 2.60% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.00% | 2.20% | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.50% | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.8 | 25.8 | 22.2 | — |
| 02/15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.90% | 0.40% |
| 02/15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 02/15 | Capacity Utilization | 78.00% | 77.50% | 77.90% | 77.70% |
| 02/15 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | 72 | 72 | — |
| 02/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$119.3b | $33.8b | $33.5b |
| 02/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $27.3b | $57.5b | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | 1.00% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.50% | -0.20% | 0.00% |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.00% | 3.60% | 3.00% | 3.20% |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.80% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.40% | 2.60% | 2.80% |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts | 1234k | 1326k | 1192k | 1209k |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.50% | 9.70% | -8.20% | -6.90% |
| 02/16 | Building Permits | 1300k | 1396k | 1302k | 1300k |
| 02/16 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | 7.40% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.5 | — | 95.7 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 111.1 | — | 110.5 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.2 | — | 86.3 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |