February 17, 2021 Headlines

January retail sales in the U.S. jumped 5.3% – the largest bump in seven months – following a disappointing fourth quarter, including December, which saw a 1% decline; median estimates called for a 1.1% monthly gain in January. The “control group”, which is a subset that excludes gasoline, food services, building-materials, and car dealers, surged 6% MoM, the biggest increase since June. Additionally, online retailers jumped 11%, good for the best month in two years, while food services rose 6.9%. Vaccine rollout, easing of some restrictions, and further fiscal stimulus appears to have helped drive spending across a host of categories, possibly emboldening the staunch opposition Republicans have had to President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package, as they contend it is too large. Even so, it appears Democrats will narrowly be able to pass the plan without Republican support.

Michael Oravetz
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/17/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%-4.10%
2/17/2021PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%1.30%0.30%
2/17/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%1.20%0.10%
2/17/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%1.20%0.40%
2/17/2021PPI Final Demand YoY0.90%1.70%0.80%
2/17/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.10%2.00%1.20%
2/17/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.00%2.00%1.10%
2/17/2021Retail Sales Advance MoM1.10%5.30%-0.70%-1.00%
2/17/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.00%5.90%-1.40%-1.80%
2/17/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.80%6.10%-2.10%-2.50%
2/17/2021Retail Sales Control Group1.00%6.00%-1.90%-2.40%
2/17/2021Industrial Production MoM0.40%1.60%
2/17/2021Capacity Utilization74.80%74.50%
2/17/2021Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.70%0.90%
2/17/2021Business Inventories0.50%0.50%
2/17/2021NAHB Housing Market Index8383
2/17/2021FOMC Meeting Minutes
2/18/2021Housing Starts1660k1669k
2/18/2021Housing Starts MoM-0.50%5.80%
2/18/2021Building Permits1679k1709k1704k
2/18/2021Building Permits MoM-1.50%4.50%4.20%
2/18/2021Initial Jobless Claims770k793k
2/18/2021Continuing Claims4400k4545k
2/18/2021Import Price Index MoM1.00%0.90%
2/18/2021Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.40%
2/18/2021Import Price Index YoY0.40%-0.30%
2/18/2021Export Price Index MoM0.80%1.10%
2/18/2021Export Price Index YoY0.20%
2/18/2021Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2026.5
2/18/2021Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.9
2/18/2021Bloomberg Economic Expectations39.5
2/19/2021Markit US Manufacturing PMI58.559.2
2/19/2021Markit US Composite PMI58.7
2/19/2021Markit US Services PMI5858.3
2/19/2021Existing Home Sales6.61m6.76m
2/19/2021Existing Home Sales MoM-2.20%0.70%

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