February 17, 2023 Headlines

Hawkish Fedspeak and an upside surprise for January PPI didn’t help stop the bleeding in Treasuries yesterday, and yields are another 3 basis points higher this morning across the curve. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said yesterday that she “saw a compelling case for a 50 basis point increase” at the last FOMC meeting, and later in the day, James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) said he wouldn’t rule out supporting a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting (March 22). Fed funds futures are now pricing for a terminal rate of 5.30% mid-year and 5.12% at year-end. At the beginning of this month, pricing was for a 4.9% terminal rate and 4.4% at year-end. Today’s trading activity should be more subdued heading into the holiday weekend. There will be two Fed leaders (Barkin and Bowman) speaking at separate events today, and for next week, January PCE will be released on Friday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
2/17/23 Import Price Index MoM -0.10% -0.20% 0.40% -0.10%
2/17/23 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.30% 0.20% 0.80% 0.70%
2/17/23 Import Price Index YoY 1.40% 0.80% 3.50% 3.00%
2/17/23 Export Price Index MoM -0.20% 0.80% -2.60% -3.20%
2/17/23 Export Price Index YoY 2.80% 2.30% 5.00% 4.30%
2/17/23 Leading Index -0.30% -0.80%
2/21/23 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -6.5
2/21/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 47.2 46.9
2/21/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 47.3 46.8
2/21/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 47.5 46.8
2/21/23 Existing Home Sales 4.11m 4.02m
2/21/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 2.10% -1.50%
2/22/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -7.70%
2/22/23 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/22/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes
2/23/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.49
2/23/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.90% 2.90%
2/23/23 Personal Consumption 1.90% 2.10%
2/23/23 GDP Price Index 3.50% 3.50%
2/23/23 Core PCE QoQ 3.90% 3.90%
2/23/23 Initial Jobless Claims 200k 194k
2/23/23 Continuing Claims 1696k
2/23/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -2 -1
2/24/23 Personal Income 0.90% 0.20%
2/24/23 Personal Spending 1.30% -0.20%
2/24/23 Real Personal Spending -0.30%
2/24/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.50% 0.10%
2/24/23 PCE Deflator YoY 4.90% 5.00%
2/24/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.40% 0.30%
2/24/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.30% 4.40%
2/24/23 New Home Sales 620k 616k
2/24/23 New Home Sales MoM 0.70% 2.30%
2/24/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 66.4 66.4
2/24/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 72.6
2/24/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 62.3
2/24/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.20%
2/24/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90%
2/24/23 Kansas City Fed Services Activity -11

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