Treasury yields continue to leak higher on the long end of the curve this morning. Yesterday’s blowout January retail sales report is still fresh on market participants’ minds, and increased mortgage-related hedging activity amid this week’s curve steepening has likely fueled this week’s steepening as well. It is unclear at this point the Fed’s comfort level with the recent curve steepening, but we will get a chance to hear from Jerome Powell next Tuesday during his semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell could potentially choose to verbally lean against this trend with talks of additional policy tools, including duration extension and yield curve control, or simply reinforce the idea that the Fed is well equipped to battle inflation in the future. A sharp rise in Treasury yields can weigh on risk assets and the flow of credit, which would presumably make the Fed uncomfortable while the economy is still attempting to climb out of the pandemic hole.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
2/18/2021 | Housing Starts | 1660k | 1580k | 1669k | 1680k |
2/18/2021 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.50% | -6.00% | 5.80% | 8.20% |
2/18/2021 | Building Permits | 1680k | 1881k | 1709k | 1704k |
2/18/2021 | Building Permits MoM | -1.40% | 10.40% | 4.50% | 4.20% |
2/18/2021 | Initial Jobless Claims | 773k | 861k | 793k | 848k |
2/18/2021 | Continuing Claims | 4425k | 4494k | 4545k | 4558k |
2/18/2021 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.40% | 0.90% | 1.00% |
2/18/2021 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | 0.90% | 0.40% | — |
2/18/2021 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | 0.90% | -0.30% | — |
2/18/2021 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.80% | 2.50% | 1.10% | 1.30% |
2/18/2021 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 2.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
2/18/2021 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20 | 23.1 | 26.5 | — |
2/18/2021 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.9 | — |
2/18/2021 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 39.5 | — |
2/19/2021 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 58.7 | — | 59.2 | — |
2/19/2021 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 58.7 | — |
2/19/2021 | Markit US Services PMI | 58 | — | 58.3 | — |
2/19/2021 | Existing Home Sales | 6.60m | — | 6.76m | — |
2/19/2021 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
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