Treasury yields are drifting higher and steeper again this morning following a relatively quiet overnight session. Equity futures are up 30-65 basis points ahead of the open, with earnings optimism outpacing rising yields worries as it relates to valuations. In a Wall Street Journal Op-ed, Johns Hopkins professor Dr. Marty Makary suggests we will have herd immunity in the U.S. by April, well ahead of many forecasts to this point. In making this forecast, Makary argues that testing has only been capturing 10-25% of infections, which he extrapolated to estimate that 55% of Americans have natural immunity already. On the fiscal front, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that tax hikes would be necessary to pay for at least a part of any large infrastructure spending package that the Biden administration may unveil later this year. In New York, a “mark-to-market” tax on billionaires is being discussed by a coalition of unions, Democrat lawmakers, and progressive advocacy groups, according to the Wall Street Journal in an effort to tackle with the state’s $8.2 billion deficit. The tax would effectively tax capital gains over a year, regardless of whether an asset was actually sold.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer