February 2, 2021 Headlines

Hope on both the vaccine and stimulus fronts is fueling risk appetite in global markets today. U.S. equity futures are up 80-90 basis points (bps) ahead of the open, and long-end Treasury yields are 3 bps higher. President Biden will continue to push for a larger Covid relief bill after meeting with a group of 10 Republican Senators yesterday to discuss the legislation. Senators Susan Collins (ME) described the meeting as “productive,” and Senator Bill Cassidy (LA) characterized the president as accommodative to their concerns. Biden did agree to provide more details and justification for components of the $1.9 trillion plan, including additional funding for school openings, which the group of Republicans contend had already been provided in previous packages. In the meantime, Democrats in Congress took the first step yesterday for a budget reconciliation bill, which would allow parts of the relief bill to pass with only a simple majority.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/01/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	59.1	59.2	59.1	—
02/01/21	Construction Spending MoM	0.90%	1.00%	0.90%	1.10%
02/01/21	ISM Manufacturing	60	58.7	60.7	60.5
02/01/21	ISM Prices Paid	76	82.1	77.6	—
02/01/21	ISM New Orders	—	61.1	67.9	67.5
02/01/21	ISM Employment	—	52.6	51.5	51.7
02/02/21	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.15m	—	16.27m	—
02/03/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-4.10%	—
02/03/21	ADP Employment Change	50k	—	-123k	—
02/03/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	58	—
02/03/21	Markit US Services PMI	57.4	—	57.5	—
02/03/21	ISM Services Index	56.7	—	57.2	57.7
02/04/21	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	134.50%	—
02/04/21	Unit Labor Costs	4.00%	—	-6.60%	—
02/04/21	Nonfarm Productivity	-3.00%	—	4.60%	—
02/04/21	Initial Jobless Claims	830k	—	847k	—
02/04/21	Continuing Claims	4700k	—	4771k	—
02/04/21	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	45.7	—
02/04/21	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.80%	—
02/04/21	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	1.00%	—
02/04/21	Durable Goods Orders	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
02/04/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	—	0.70%	—
02/04/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
02/04/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.50%	—
02/05/21	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
02/05/21	Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/05/21	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	70k	—	-140k	—
02/05/21	Change in Private Payrolls	105k	—	-95k	—
02/05/21	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	31k	—	38k	—
02/05/21	Unemployment Rate	6.70%	—	6.70%	—
02/05/21	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.80%	—
02/05/21	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.00%	—	5.10%	—
02/05/21	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.7	—
02/05/21	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.50%	—	61.50%	—
02/05/21	Trade Balance	-$65.7b	—	-$68.1b	—
02/05/21	Underemployment Rate	—	—	11.70%	—
02/05/21	Consumer Credit	$12.000b	—	$15.274b	—

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