February 2, 2021 Headlines

Hope on both the vaccine and stimulus fronts is fueling risk appetite in global markets today. U.S. equity futures are up 80-90 basis points (bps) ahead of the open, and long-end Treasury yields are 3 bps higher. President Biden will continue to push for a larger Covid relief bill after meeting with a group of 10 Republican Senators yesterday to discuss the legislation. Senators Susan Collins (ME) described the meeting as “productive,” and Senator Bill Cassidy (LA) characterized the president as accommodative to their concerns. Biden did agree to provide more details and justification for components of the $1.9 trillion plan, including additional funding for school openings, which the group of Republicans contend had already been provided in previous packages. In the meantime, Democrats in Congress took the first step yesterday for a budget reconciliation bill, which would allow parts of the relief bill to pass with only a simple majority.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159.259.1
02/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.90%1.00%0.90%1.10%
02/01/21ISM Manufacturing6058.760.760.5
02/01/21ISM Prices Paid7682.177.6
02/01/21ISM New Orders61.167.967.5
02/01/21ISM Employment52.651.551.7
02/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.15m16.27m
02/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.10%
02/03/21ADP Employment Change50k-123k
02/03/21Markit US Composite PMI58
02/03/21Markit US Services PMI57.457.5
02/03/21ISM Services Index56.757.257.7
02/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY134.50%
02/04/21Unit Labor Costs4.00%-6.60%
02/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.00%4.60%
02/04/21Initial Jobless Claims830k847k
02/04/21Continuing Claims4700k4771k
02/04/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.7
02/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
02/04/21Factory Orders0.70%1.00%
02/04/21Durable Goods Orders0.20%0.20%
02/04/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
02/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.60%
02/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%
02/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
02/05/21Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls70k-140k
02/05/21Change in Private Payrolls105k-95k
02/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls31k38k
02/05/21Unemployment Rate6.70%6.70%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.80%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%5.10%
02/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
02/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%
02/05/21Trade Balance-$65.7b-$68.1b
02/05/21Underemployment Rate11.70%
02/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$15.274b

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