February 22, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning amid general softness in risk markets to start the week. There’s a growing sense of optimism related to Covid recovery, and consequently, inflation has been the word of the month so far in financial markets. It appears that Democrats are going to be able to push through a relief package closer to the original $1.9 trillion target, and infrastructure spending discussions have emerged in recent weeks as well.  Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell have been largely dismissive of inflation worries in recent comments, suggesting that the economy still has a long way to go and that the Fed has the tools to effectively deal with inflation risks. Market participants hope to get a better read on the Fed’s current outlook and comfort with the recent Treasury curve steepening when Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.660.520.41
02/22/21Leading Index0.40%0.30%
02/22/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity57
02/23/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.10%
02/23/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.00%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.25%1.42%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA9.90%9.08%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA9.49%
02/23/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9089.3
02/23/21Conf. Board Present Situation84.4
02/23/21Conf. Board Expectations92.5
02/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1614
02/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%
02/24/21New Home Sales855k842k
02/24/21New Home Sales MoM1.50%1.60%
02/25/21Durable Goods Orders1.00%0.50%
02/25/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%1.10%
02/25/21Initial Jobless Claims825k861k
02/25/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.70%
02/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.00%
02/25/21Continuing Claims4420k4494k
02/25/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.70%
02/25/21Personal Consumption2.50%2.50%
02/25/21GDP Price Index2.00%2.00%
02/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%
02/25/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.8
02/25/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%-0.30%
02/25/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY22.80%
02/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1517
02/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$83.0b-$82.5b
02/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.30%
02/26/21Personal Income9.50%0.60%
02/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.50%1.00%
02/26/21Personal Spending2.50%-0.20%
02/26/21Real Personal Spending2.20%-0.60%
02/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
02/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.50%
02/26/21MNI Chicago PMI6163.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment76.576.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions86.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%
02/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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