February 22, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning amid general softness in risk markets to start the week. There’s a growing sense of optimism related to Covid recovery, and consequently, inflation has been the word of the month so far in financial markets. It appears that Democrats are going to be able to push through a relief package closer to the original $1.9 trillion target, and infrastructure spending discussions have emerged in recent weeks as well. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell have been largely dismissive of inflation worries in recent comments, suggesting that the economy still has a long way to go and that the Fed has the tools to effectively deal with inflation risks. Market participants hope to get a better read on the Fed’s current outlook and comfort with the recent Treasury curve steepening when Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/22/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.5	0.66	0.52	0.41
02/22/21	Leading Index	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
02/22/21	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	5	—	7	—
02/23/21	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	—	3.10%	—
02/23/21	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
02/23/21	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.25%	—	1.42%	—
02/23/21	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	9.90%	—	9.08%	—
02/23/21	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	9.49%	—
02/23/21	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	90	—	89.3	—
02/23/21	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	84.4	—
02/23/21	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	92.5	—
02/23/21	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	16	—	14	—
02/24/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-5.10%	—
02/24/21	New Home Sales	855k	—	842k	—
02/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	1.50%	—	1.60%	—
02/25/21	Durable Goods Orders	1.00%	—	0.50%	—
02/25/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	—	1.10%	—
02/25/21	Initial Jobless Claims	825k	—	861k	—
02/25/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.80%	—	0.70%	—
02/25/21	GDP Annualized QoQ	4.20%	—	4.00%	—
02/25/21	Continuing Claims	4420k	—	4494k	—
02/25/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.60%	—	0.70%	—
02/25/21	Personal Consumption	2.50%	—	2.50%	—
02/25/21	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	2.00%	—
02/25/21	Core PCE QoQ	1.40%	—	1.40%	—
02/25/21	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	45.8	—
02/25/21	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.00%	—	-0.30%	—
02/25/21	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	22.80%	—
02/25/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	15	—	17	—
02/26/21	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$83.0b	—	-$82.5b	—
02/26/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
02/26/21	Personal Income	9.50%	—	0.60%	—
02/26/21	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	—	1.00%	—
02/26/21	Personal Spending	2.50%	—	-0.20%	—
02/26/21	Real Personal Spending	2.20%	—	-0.60%	—
02/26/21	PCE Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
02/26/21	PCE Deflator YoY	1.40%	—	1.30%	—
02/26/21	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.10%	—	0.30%	—
02/26/21	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.40%	—	1.50%	—
02/26/21	MNI Chicago PMI	61	—	63.8	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	76.5	—	76.2	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	86.2	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	69.8	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.30%	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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