Treasury prices are higher this morning on relatively light volumes, and U.S. equity futures are actually higher ahead of today’s open. There were no major headlines/events overnight, and market participants await several speeches from Fed leaders this afternoon as part of a monetary policy conference in New York. More disappointing economic data from Germany is contributing to the bid for Treasuries this morning, with business sentiment falling to the lowest level since January 2015. Discussion of the Fed’s future balance sheet policies will be a chief area of focus for investors at today’s conference, but there are multiple articles out this morning suggesting the Fed is in the midst of a larger shift in how they approach policy decisions. More specifically, an acknowledgement by policymakers that the relationship between inflation and employment has dwindled (Philips curve theory), and Fed leaders may be becoming more comfortable with the idea of permitting inflation to overshoot the target range for a period of time.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/19/2019NAHB Housing Market Index596258
2/20/2019MBA Mortgage Applications3.60%-3.70%-6.90%
2/20/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
2/20/2019FOMC Minutes Released Live on Web
2/21/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14-4.117
2/21/2019Initial Jobless Claims228k216k239k
2/21/2019Continuing Claims1743k1725k1773k1780k
2/21/2019Durable Goods Orders1.70%1.20%0.70%1.00%
2/21/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.10%-0.40%-0.20%
2/21/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.70%-0.60%-1.00%
2/21/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.50%-0.20%
2/21/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.660
2/21/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.544.5
2/21/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.853.754.9
2/21/2019Markit US Services PMI54.356.254.2
2/21/2019Markit US Composite PMI55.854.4
2/21/2019Leading Index0.10%-0.10%-0.10%0.00%
2/21/2019Revisions: Existing Home Sales
2/21/2019Existing Home Sales5.00m4.94m4.99m5.00m
2/21/2019Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%-1.20%-6.40%-4.00%