Treasury prices are higher this morning on relatively light volumes, and U.S. equity futures are actually higher ahead of today’s open. There were no major headlines/events overnight, and market participants await several speeches from Fed leaders this afternoon as part of a monetary policy conference in New York. More disappointing economic data from Germany is contributing to the bid for Treasuries this morning, with business sentiment falling to the lowest level since January 2015. Discussion of the Fed’s future balance sheet policies will be a chief area of focus for investors at today’s conference, but there are multiple articles out this morning suggesting the Fed is in the midst of a larger shift in how they approach policy decisions. More specifically, an acknowledgement by policymakers that the relationship between inflation and employment has dwindled (Philips curve theory), and Fed leaders may be becoming more comfortable with the idea of permitting inflation to overshoot the target range for a period of time.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/19/2019 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 59 | 62 | 58 | — |
| 2/20/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 3.60% | -3.70% | -6.90% |
| 2/20/2019 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 2/20/2019 | FOMC Minutes Released Live on Web | ||||
| 2/21/2019 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 14 | -4.1 | 17 | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 216k | 239k | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1743k | 1725k | 1773k | 1780k |
| 2/21/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.70% | 1.20% | 0.70% | 1.00% |
| 2/21/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% |
| 2/21/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | -0.70% | -0.60% | -1.00% |
| 2/21/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | 0.50% | -0.20% | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 59.6 | 60 | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | 54.5 | 44.5 | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54.8 | 53.7 | 54.9 | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.3 | 56.2 | 54.2 | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.8 | 54.4 | — |
| 2/21/2019 | Leading Index | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 2/21/2019 | Revisions: Existing Home Sales | ||||
| 2/21/2019 | Existing Home Sales | 5.00m | 4.94m | 4.99m | 5.00m |
| 2/21/2019 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | -1.20% | -6.40% | -4.00% |