All eyes are on Washington today as Fed Chair Powell presents the semi-annual monetary policy update to the Senate Banking Committee. Market participants will be specifically focused on how Powell’s addresses the magnitude of the recent curve steepening. The 2-year/10-year measure of Treasury curve slope has steepened 47 bps so far in 2021 as inflation speculation has gripped markets. Congress appears to moving toward a nearly $2 trillion relief bill at the same time that the recovery outlook has improved. The decline in cases and hospitalizations, as well as the recent assertion by a Johns Hopkins professor that we could reach herd immunity much sooner than expected, has fueled a perfect storm for rising long-end yields. Some would argue that the bond market is oversold at this point, but in trading nomenclature, this is perhaps a classic “falling knife” moment.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
02/22/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.5 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.41 |
02/22/21 | Leading Index | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
02/22/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 5 | 17.2 | 7 | — |
02/23/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.00% | — |
02/23/21 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 3.80% | 3.10% | 3.40% |
02/23/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.42% | 1.46% |
02/23/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 9.90% | 10.10% | 9.08% | 9.20% |
02/23/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 10.37% | 9.49% | 9.50% |
02/23/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 90 | — | 89.3 | — |
02/23/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 84.4 | — |
02/23/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 92.5 | — |
02/23/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | — | 14 | — |
02/24/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.10% | — |
02/24/21 | New Home Sales | 855k | — | 842k | — |
02/24/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.50% | — | 1.60% | — |
02/25/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | — | 0.50% | — |
02/25/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.70% | — | 1.10% | — |
02/25/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 830k | — | 861k | — |
02/25/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.80% | — | 0.70% | — |
02/25/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | — | 4.00% | — |
02/25/21 | Continuing Claims | 4420k | — | 4494k | — |
02/25/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
02/25/21 | Personal Consumption | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
02/25/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
02/25/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
02/25/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 45.8 | — |
02/25/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.30% | — |
02/25/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 22.80% | — |
02/25/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 15 | — | 17 | — |
02/26/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$83.1b | — | -$82.5b | — |
02/26/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
02/26/21 | Personal Income | 9.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
02/26/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
02/26/21 | Personal Spending | 2.50% | — | -0.20% | — |
02/26/21 | Real Personal Spending | 2.20% | — | -0.60% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.30% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
02/26/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.50% | — |
02/26/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 61 | — | 63.8 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 76.5 | — | 76.2 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 86.2 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 69.8 | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.30% | — |
02/26/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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