February 23, 2021 Headlines

All eyes are on Washington today as Fed Chair Powell presents the semi-annual monetary policy update to the Senate Banking Committee. Market participants will be specifically focused on how Powell’s addresses the magnitude of the recent curve steepening. The 2-year/10-year measure of Treasury curve slope has steepened 47 bps so far in 2021 as inflation speculation has gripped markets. Congress appears to moving toward a nearly $2 trillion relief bill at the same time that the recovery outlook has improved. The decline in cases and hospitalizations, as well as the recent assertion by a Johns Hopkins professor that we could reach herd immunity much sooner than expected, has fueled a perfect storm for rising long-end yields. Some would argue that the bond market is oversold at this point, but in trading nomenclature, this is perhaps a classic “falling knife” moment. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.660.520.41
02/22/21Leading Index0.40%0.50%0.30%0.40%
02/22/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity517.27
02/23/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.10%1.00%
02/23/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.80%3.10%3.40%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.25%1.25%1.42%1.46%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA9.90%10.10%9.08%9.20%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA10.37%9.49%9.50%
02/23/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9089.3
02/23/21Conf. Board Present Situation84.4
02/23/21Conf. Board Expectations92.5
02/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1514
02/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-5.10%
02/24/21New Home Sales855k842k
02/24/21New Home Sales MoM1.50%1.60%
02/25/21Durable Goods Orders1.00%0.50%
02/25/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%1.10%
02/25/21Initial Jobless Claims830k861k
02/25/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.70%
02/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.00%
02/25/21Continuing Claims4420k4494k
02/25/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.70%
02/25/21Personal Consumption2.50%2.50%
02/25/21GDP Price Index2.00%2.00%
02/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%
02/25/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.8
02/25/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%-0.30%
02/25/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY22.80%
02/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1517
02/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$83.1b-$82.5b
02/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%
02/26/21Personal Income9.50%0.60%
02/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.50%1.00%
02/26/21Personal Spending2.50%-0.20%
02/26/21Real Personal Spending2.20%-0.60%
02/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
02/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.50%
02/26/21MNI Chicago PMI6163.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment76.576.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions86.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%
02/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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