February 23, 2021 Headlines

All eyes are on Washington today as Fed Chair Powell presents the semi-annual monetary policy update to the Senate Banking Committee. Market participants will be specifically focused on how Powell’s addresses the magnitude of the recent curve steepening. The 2-year/10-year measure of Treasury curve slope has steepened 47 bps so far in 2021 as inflation speculation has gripped markets. Congress appears to moving toward a nearly $2 trillion relief bill at the same time that the recovery outlook has improved. The decline in cases and hospitalizations, as well as the recent assertion by a Johns Hopkins professor that we could reach herd immunity much sooner than expected, has fueled a perfect storm for rising long-end yields. Some would argue that the bond market is oversold at this point, but in trading nomenclature, this is perhaps a classic “falling knife” moment.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/22/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.5	0.66	0.52	0.41
02/22/21	Leading Index	0.40%	0.50%	0.30%	0.40%
02/22/21	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	5	17.2	7	—
02/23/21	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.00%	1.10%	1.00%	—
02/23/21	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	3.80%	3.10%	3.40%
02/23/21	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.25%	1.25%	1.42%	1.46%
02/23/21	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	9.90%	10.10%	9.08%	9.20%
02/23/21	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	10.37%	9.49%	9.50%
02/23/21	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	90	—	89.3	—
02/23/21	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	84.4	—
02/23/21	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	92.5	—
02/23/21	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	15	—	14	—
02/24/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-5.10%	—
02/24/21	New Home Sales	855k	—	842k	—
02/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	1.50%	—	1.60%	—
02/25/21	Durable Goods Orders	1.00%	—	0.50%	—
02/25/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	—	1.10%	—
02/25/21	Initial Jobless Claims	830k	—	861k	—
02/25/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.80%	—	0.70%	—
02/25/21	GDP Annualized QoQ	4.20%	—	4.00%	—
02/25/21	Continuing Claims	4420k	—	4494k	—
02/25/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.60%	—	0.70%	—
02/25/21	Personal Consumption	2.50%	—	2.50%	—
02/25/21	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	2.00%	—
02/25/21	Core PCE QoQ	1.40%	—	1.40%	—
02/25/21	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	45.8	—
02/25/21	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.00%	—	-0.30%	—
02/25/21	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	22.80%	—
02/25/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	15	—	17	—
02/26/21	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$83.1b	—	-$82.5b	—
02/26/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
02/26/21	Personal Income	9.50%	—	0.60%	—
02/26/21	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	—	1.00%	—
02/26/21	Personal Spending	2.50%	—	-0.20%	—
02/26/21	Real Personal Spending	2.20%	—	-0.60%	—
02/26/21	PCE Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
02/26/21	PCE Deflator YoY	1.40%	—	1.30%	—
02/26/21	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.10%	—	0.30%	—
02/26/21	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.40%	—	1.50%	—
02/26/21	MNI Chicago PMI	61	—	63.8	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	76.5	—	76.2	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	86.2	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	69.8	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.30%	—
02/26/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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