February 23, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher following a relatively quiet overnight session (Japan on holiday). Eurozone aggregate core CPI for January was revised higher to 5.3% y/y, a new record high. On the domestic data front, the second estimate of Q4 GDP growth was revised down from 2.9% to 2.7%, and it revealed even weaker underlying details than the first estimate. Personal consumption was revised down by 70 basis points to 1.4%, and real final sales to domestic purchasers (i.e., core GDP) was revised lower to 0.7%. However, the Q4 core PCE measure was revised higher by 40 basis points to 4.3% q/q, which is more important at this point from the Fed’s perspective. The January PCE report will be released tomorrow morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
2/23/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.25 0.23 -0.49 -0.46
2/23/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.90% 2.70% 2.90%
2/23/23 Personal Consumption 2.00% 1.40% 2.10%
2/23/23 GDP Price Index 3.50% 3.90% 3.50%
2/23/23 Core PCE QoQ 3.90% 4.30% 3.90%
2/23/23 Initial Jobless Claims 200k 192k 194k 195k
2/23/23 Continuing Claims 1700k 1654k 1696k 1691k
2/23/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -2 -1
2/24/23 Personal Income 1.00% 0.20%
2/24/23 Personal Spending 1.40% -0.20%
2/24/23 Real Personal Spending 1.10% -0.30%
2/24/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.50% 0.10%
2/24/23 PCE Deflator YoY 5.00% 5.00%
2/24/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.40% 0.30%
2/24/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.30% 4.40%
2/24/23 New Home Sales 620k 616k
2/24/23 New Home Sales MoM 0.70% 2.30%
2/24/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 66.4 66.4
2/24/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 72.7 72.6
2/24/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 62.5 62.3
2/24/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.20% 4.20%
2/24/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 2.90%
2/24/23 Kansas City Fed Services Activity -11
2/27/23 Durable Goods Orders -3.80% 5.60%
2/27/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.10% -0.20%
2/27/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.00% -0.10%
2/27/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.60%
2/27/23 Pending Home Sales MoM 1.00% 2.50%
2/27/23 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -34.30%
2/27/23 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -9 -8.4
2/28/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.10%
2/28/23 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$91.0b -$90.3b -$89.7b
2/28/23 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50%
2/28/23 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 0.10%
2/28/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM -0.10%
2/28/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA -0.54%
2/28/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 6.77%
2/28/23 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 7.69%
2/28/23 MNI Chicago PMI 44.3
2/28/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -11
2/28/23 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 108.5 107.1
2/28/23 Conf. Board Present Situation 150.9
2/28/23 Conf. Board Expectations 77.8
2/28/23 Richmond Fed Business Conditions -10
2/28/23 Dallas Fed Services Activity -15
3/1/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -13.30%
3/1/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 47.8
3/1/23 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% -0.40%
3/1/23 ISM Manufacturing 47.9 47.4
3/1/23 ISM Prices Paid 44.5
3/1/23 ISM Employment 50.6
3/1/23 ISM New Orders 42.5
3/1/23 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.00m 15.74m
3/2/23 Nonfarm Productivity 2.50% 3.00%
3/2/23 Unit Labor Costs 1.50% 1.10%
3/2/23 Initial Jobless Claims 192k
3/2/23 Continuing Claims 1654k

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