February 24, 2021 Headlines

Both Treasury yields and equity futures are higher this morning due to comments made by Fed Chairman Powell stating that the central bank would remain committed to supporting economic growth. The 10-year is currently 7 bps higher this morning at 1.41% and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year is sitting at 128 bps, its widest level since December of 2016.

This morning’s MBA data release showed purchase applications falling by 11.6% pushing the index to a 9-month low. The 30-year purchase rate rose by 10 bps to 3.08%, its highest level since September. Refinancing activity also showed a slowdown as applications fell by 11.3% last week, the lowest level since the week of Christmas.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/22/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.5 0.66 0.52 0.41
02/22/21 Leading Index 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%
02/22/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 5 17.2 7 —
02/23/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.10% 1.00% —
02/23/21 House Price Purchase Index QoQ — 3.80% 3.10% 3.40%
02/23/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.25% 1.25% 1.42% 1.46%
02/23/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 9.90% 10.10% 9.08% 9.20%
02/23/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 10.37% 9.49% 9.50%
02/23/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 90 91.3 89.3 88.9
02/23/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 92 84.4 85.5
02/23/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 90.8 92.5 91.2
02/23/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 15 14 14 —
02/24/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -11.40% -5.10% —
02/24/21 New Home Sales 856k — 842k —
02/24/21 New Home Sales MoM 1.70% — 1.60% —
02/25/21 Durable Goods Orders 1.00% — 0.50% —
02/25/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.70% — 1.10% —
02/25/21 Initial Jobless Claims 825k — 861k —
02/25/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.80% — 0.70% —
02/25/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.20% — 4.00% —
02/25/21 Continuing Claims 4460k — 4494k —
02/25/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.60% — 0.70% —
02/25/21 Personal Consumption 2.50% — 2.50% —
02/25/21 GDP Price Index 2.00% — 2.00% —
02/25/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.40% — 1.40% —
02/25/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 45.8 —
02/25/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.00% — -0.30% —
02/25/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — — 22.80% —
02/25/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 15 — 17 —
02/26/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$83.1b — -$82.5b —
02/26/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% — 0.30% —
02/26/21 Personal Income 9.50% — 0.60% —
02/26/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50% — 1.00% —
02/26/21 Personal Spending 2.50% — -0.20% —
02/26/21 Real Personal Spending 2.20% — -0.60% —
02/26/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.40% —
02/26/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% — 1.30% —
02/26/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% — 0.30% —
02/26/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% — 1.50% —
02/26/21 MNI Chicago PMI 61 — 63.8 —
02/26/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 76.5 — 76.2 —
02/26/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 86.2 —
02/26/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 69.8 —
02/26/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 3.30% —
02/26/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

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