February 25, 2021 Headlines

Another day, another sell-off in the Treasury market. The selling did briefly subside earlier this morning when ECB chief economist Philip Lane expressed concerns that the sharp rise in European long-end yields may lead to “a tightening of financial conditions” that could offset other stimulus efforts in combatting the impact of the pandemic. Lane said the ECB will be flexible in its bond purchases to combat the move. Fed Chair Powell declined to make similar comments this week, perhaps knowing that a larger fiscal aid package is a high probability at this point. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is up to 130 basis points this morning, the steepest since December 2016. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.660.520.41
02/22/21Leading Index0.40%0.50%0.30%0.40%
02/22/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity517.27
02/23/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.00%1.10%1.00%
02/23/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.80%3.10%3.40%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.25%1.25%1.42%1.46%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA9.90%10.10%9.08%9.20%
02/23/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA10.37%9.49%9.50%
02/23/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9091.389.388.9
02/23/21Conf. Board Present Situation9284.485.5
02/23/21Conf. Board Expectations90.892.591.2
02/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index151414
02/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications-11.40%-5.10%
02/24/21New Home Sales856k923k842k885k
02/24/21New Home Sales MoM1.70%4.30%1.60%5.50%
02/25/21Durable Goods Orders1.10%3.40%0.50%1.20%
02/25/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%1.40%1.10%1.70%
02/25/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.50%0.70%1.50%
02/25/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%2.10%0.70%1.00%
02/25/21Initial Jobless Claims825k730k861k841k
02/25/21Continuing Claims4460k4419k4494k4520k
02/25/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.10%4.00%
02/25/21Personal Consumption2.50%2.40%2.50%
02/25/21GDP Price Index2.00%2.10%2.00%
02/25/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%1.40%
02/25/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.8
02/25/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%-0.30%
02/25/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY22.80%
02/25/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1517
02/26/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$83.0b-$82.5b
02/26/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%
02/26/21Personal Income9.50%0.60%
02/26/21Retail Inventories MoM0.50%1.00%
02/26/21Personal Spending2.50%-0.20%
02/26/21Real Personal Spending2.20%-0.60%
02/26/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
02/26/21PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%
02/26/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.50%
02/26/21MNI Chicago PMI6163.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. Sentiment76.576.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions86.2
02/26/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.8
02/26/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%
02/26/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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