February 25, 2021 Headlines

Another day, another sell-off in the Treasury market. The selling did briefly subside earlier this morning when ECB chief economist Philip Lane expressed concerns that the sharp rise in European long-end yields may lead to “a tightening of financial conditions” that could offset other stimulus efforts in combatting the impact of the pandemic. Lane said the ECB will be flexible in its bond purchases to combat the move. Fed Chair Powell declined to make similar comments this week, perhaps knowing that a larger fiscal aid package is a high probability at this point. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is up to 130 basis points this morning, the steepest since December 2016. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/22/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.5 0.66 0.52 0.41
02/22/21 Leading Index 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%
02/22/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 5 17.2 7
02/23/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.10% 1.00%
02/23/21 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 3.80% 3.10% 3.40%
02/23/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.25% 1.25% 1.42% 1.46%
02/23/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 9.90% 10.10% 9.08% 9.20%
02/23/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 10.37% 9.49% 9.50%
02/23/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 90 91.3 89.3 88.9
02/23/21 Conf. Board Present Situation 92 84.4 85.5
02/23/21 Conf. Board Expectations 90.8 92.5 91.2
02/23/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 15 14 14
02/24/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -11.40% -5.10%
02/24/21 New Home Sales 856k 923k 842k 885k
02/24/21 New Home Sales MoM 1.70% 4.30% 1.60% 5.50%
02/25/21 Durable Goods Orders 1.10% 3.40% 0.50% 1.20%
02/25/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.70% 1.40% 1.10% 1.70%
02/25/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.80% 0.50% 0.70% 1.50%
02/25/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.60% 2.10% 0.70% 1.00%
02/25/21 Initial Jobless Claims 825k 730k 861k 841k
02/25/21 Continuing Claims 4460k 4419k 4494k 4520k
02/25/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.20% 4.10% 4.00%
02/25/21 Personal Consumption 2.50% 2.40% 2.50%
02/25/21 GDP Price Index 2.00% 2.10% 2.00%
02/25/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.40% 1.40% 1.40%
02/25/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.8
02/25/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.00% -0.30%
02/25/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 22.80%
02/25/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 15 17
02/26/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$83.0b -$82.5b
02/26/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.30%
02/26/21 Personal Income 9.50% 0.60%
02/26/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50% 1.00%
02/26/21 Personal Spending 2.50% -0.20%
02/26/21 Real Personal Spending 2.20% -0.60%
02/26/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40%
02/26/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.30%
02/26/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.30%
02/26/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.50%
02/26/21 MNI Chicago PMI 61 63.8
02/26/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 76.5 76.2
02/26/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 86.2
02/26/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 69.8
02/26/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30%
02/26/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%

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