Treasuries are higher this morning and the curve slightly flatter ahead of Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill tomorrow. Equities are rallying to their highest level in three weeks (S&P 500 up ~10 points) as investors anticipate more clarity from Powell on regarding this month’s surge in US bond yields. While investors are optimistic, some Wall Street firms are more bearish, with Goldman publicly stating that if ten-year yields rise to 4.5% or higher by year-end, we could see a 20-25% correction. On the economic data front, New Home Sales is expected to increase 3.5% month-over-month per street consensus vs. a -9.3% decline last month.

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event   Survey Actual Prior Revised
02/26/2018 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan 0.25 0.12 0.27 0.14
02/26/2018 New Home Sales Jan 647k 625k
02/26/2018 New Home Sales MoM Jan 3.50% -9.30%
02/26/2018 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb 30 33.4
02/27/2018 Advance Goods Trade Balance Jan -$72.3b -$71.6b -$72.3b
02/27/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan P 0.40% 0.40%
02/27/2018 Retail Inventories MoM Jan 0.20%
02/27/2018 Durable Goods Orders Jan P -2.00% 2.80%
02/27/2018 Durables Ex Transportation Jan P 0.50% 0.70%
02/27/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jan P 0.50% -0.60%
02/27/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Jan P 0.20% 0.40%
02/27/2018 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 4Q 1.40%
02/27/2018 FHFA House Price Index MoM Dec 0.40% 0.40%
02/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Dec 204.21
02/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Dec 0.60% 0.75%
02/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Dec 6.35% 6.41%
02/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Dec 195.94
02/27/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Dec 6.21%
02/27/2018 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb 15 14
02/27/2018 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Feb 126.4 125.4
02/27/2018 Conf. Board Present Situation Feb 155.3
02/27/2018 Conf. Board Expectations Feb 105.5
02/28/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 23-Feb -6.60%
02/28/2018 Personal Consumption 4Q S 3.70% 3.80%
02/28/2018 GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2.50% 2.60%
02/28/2018 GDP Price Index 4Q S 2.40% 2.40%
02/28/2018 Core PCE QoQ 4Q S 1.90% 1.90%
02/28/2018 Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb 64.1 65.7
02/28/2018 Pending Home Sales MoM Jan 0.50% 0.50%
02/28/2018 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Jan -1.80%
02/28/2018 Revisions: Pending Home Sales
03/01/2018 Personal Income Jan 0.30% 0.40%
03/01/2018 Personal Spending Jan 0.20% 0.40%
03/01/2018 Real Personal Spending Jan -0.10% 0.30%
03/01/2018 PCE Deflator MoM Jan 0.40% 0.10%
03/01/2018 PCE Deflator YoY Jan 1.70% 1.70%
03/01/2018 PCE Core MoM Jan 0.30% 0.20%
03/01/2018 PCE Core YoY Jan 1.50% 1.50%
03/01/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 24-Feb 225k 222k
03/01/2018 Continuing Claims 17-Feb 1930k 1875k
03/01/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 25-Feb 56.6 56.6
03/01/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb F 55.9 55.9
03/01/2018 Construction Spending MoM Jan 0.30% 0.70%
03/01/2018 ISM Manufacturing Feb 58.7 59.1
03/01/2018 ISM Employment Feb 54.2
03/01/2018 ISM Prices Paid Feb 70.5 72.7
03/01/2018 ISM New Orders Feb 65.4
03/01/2018 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Feb 13.30m 13.10m
03/01/2018 Wards Total Vehicle Sales Feb 17.15m 17.07m
03/02/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F 99.5 99.9
03/02/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Feb F 115.1
03/02/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations Feb F 90.2
03/02/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Feb F 2.70%
03/02/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Feb F 2.50%
03/05/2018 Markit US Services PMI Feb F 55.9
03/05/2018 Markit US Composite PMI Feb F 55.9
03/05/2018 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Feb 58.5 59.9