Treasuries are higher this morning and the curve slightly flatter ahead of Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill tomorrow. Equities are rallying to their highest level in three weeks (S&P 500 up ~10 points) as investors anticipate more clarity from Powell on regarding this month’s surge in US bond yields. While investors are optimistic, some Wall Street firms are more bearish, with Goldman publicly stating that if ten-year yields rise to 4.5% or higher by year-end, we could see a 20-25% correction. On the economic data front, New Home Sales is expected to increase 3.5% month-over-month per street consensus vs. a -9.3% decline last month.

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
02/26/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexJan0.250.120.270.14
02/26/2018New Home SalesJan647k625k
02/26/2018New Home Sales MoMJan3.50%-9.30%
02/26/2018Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityFeb3033.4
02/27/2018Advance Goods Trade BalanceJan-$72.3b-$71.6b-$72.3b
02/27/2018Wholesale Inventories MoMJan P0.40%0.40%
02/27/2018Retail Inventories MoMJan0.20%
02/27/2018Durable Goods OrdersJan P-2.00%2.80%
02/27/2018Durables Ex TransportationJan P0.50%0.70%
02/27/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirJan P0.50%-0.60%
02/27/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirJan P0.20%0.40%
02/27/2018House Price Purchase Index QoQ4Q1.40%
02/27/2018FHFA House Price Index MoMDec0.40%0.40%
02/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA IndexDec204.21
02/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SADec0.60%0.75%
02/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSADec6.35%6.41%
02/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA IndexDec195.94
02/27/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSADec6.21%
02/27/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexFeb1514
02/27/2018Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceFeb126.4125.4
02/27/2018Conf. Board Present SituationFeb155.3
02/27/2018Conf. Board ExpectationsFeb105.5
02/28/2018MBA Mortgage Applications23-Feb-6.60%
02/28/2018Personal Consumption4Q S3.70%3.80%
02/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ4Q S2.50%2.60%
02/28/2018GDP Price Index4Q S2.40%2.40%
02/28/2018Core PCE QoQ4Q S1.90%1.90%
02/28/2018Chicago Purchasing ManagerFeb64.165.7
02/28/2018Pending Home Sales MoMJan0.50%0.50%
02/28/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoYJan-1.80%
02/28/2018Revisions: Pending Home Sales
03/01/2018Personal IncomeJan0.30%0.40%
03/01/2018Personal SpendingJan0.20%0.40%
03/01/2018Real Personal SpendingJan-0.10%0.30%
03/01/2018PCE Deflator MoMJan0.40%0.10%
03/01/2018PCE Deflator YoYJan1.70%1.70%
03/01/2018PCE Core MoMJan0.30%0.20%
03/01/2018PCE Core YoYJan1.50%1.50%
03/01/2018Initial Jobless Claims24-Feb225k222k
03/01/2018Continuing Claims17-Feb1930k1875k
03/01/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort25-Feb56.656.6
03/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMIFeb F55.955.9
03/01/2018Construction Spending MoMJan0.30%0.70%
03/01/2018ISM ManufacturingFeb58.759.1
03/01/2018ISM EmploymentFeb54.2
03/01/2018ISM Prices PaidFeb70.572.7
03/01/2018ISM New OrdersFeb65.4
03/01/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesFeb13.30m13.10m
03/01/2018Wards Total Vehicle SalesFeb17.15m17.07m
03/02/2018U. of Mich. SentimentFeb F99.599.9
03/02/2018U. of Mich. Current ConditionsFeb F115.1
03/02/2018U. of Mich. ExpectationsFeb F90.2
03/02/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationFeb F2.70%
03/02/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationFeb F2.50%
03/05/2018Markit US Services PMIFeb F55.9
03/05/2018Markit US Composite PMIFeb F55.9
03/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. CompositeFeb58.559.9