The Treasury curve is slightly lower this morning following a modest risk-off tone ahead of Powell’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony today at 10 AM EST. In his written testimony, the new Fed Chair dismisses the recent stock market correction and fears of increased US debt, and that the central bank will continue to gradually raise interest rates given the favorable economic outlook. In the statement, Powell believes that inflation will move higher and settle in around the Fed’s 2% target and that the lag in wage growth was the result of low output gains, which he feels were transitory.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/26Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.250.120.270.14
02/26New Home Sales647k593k625k643k
02/26New Home Sales MoM3.50%-7.80%-9.30%-7.60%
02/26Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3037.233.4
02/27Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.3b-$74.4b-$71.6b-$72.3b
02/27Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.70%0.40%0.60%
02/27Retail Inventories MoM0.80%0.20%0.30%
02/27Durable Goods Orders-2.00%-3.70%2.80%2.60%
02/27Durables Ex Transportation0.40%-0.30%0.70%
02/27Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.20%-0.60%
02/27Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.10%0.40%0.70%
02/27House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.60%1.40%1.50%
02/27FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%0.50%
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index204.45204.21204.11
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.64%0.75%0.74%
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.35%6.30%6.41%6.36%
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.23195.94195.78
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.27%6.21%6.13%
02/27Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1514
02/27Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.5125.4
02/27Conf. Board Present Situation155.3
02/27Conf. Board Expectations105.5
02/28MBA Mortgage Applications-6.60%
02/28Personal Consumption3.60%3.80%
02/28GDP Annualized QoQ2.50%2.60%
02/28GDP Price Index2.40%2.40%
02/28Core PCE QoQ1.90%1.90%
02/28Chicago Purchasing Manager6465.7
02/28Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.50%
02/28Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.80%
02/28Revisions: Pending Home Sales
03/01Personal Income0.30%0.40%
03/01Personal Spending0.20%0.40%
03/01Real Personal Spending-0.10%0.30%
03/01PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.10%
03/01PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.70%
03/01PCE Core MoM0.30%0.20%
03/01PCE Core YoY1.50%1.50%
03/01Initial Jobless Claims225k222k
03/01Continuing Claims1925k1875k
03/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.656.6
03/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.955.9
03/01Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.70%
03/01ISM Manufacturing58.659.1
03/01ISM Employment54.2
03/01ISM Prices Paid7072.7
03/01ISM New Orders65.4
03/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.30m13.10m
03/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.20m17.07m
03/02U. of Mich. Sentiment99.599.9
03/02U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.1
03/02U. of Mich. Expectations90.2
03/02U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
03/02U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%