The Treasury curve is slightly lower this morning following a modest risk-off tone ahead of Powell’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony today at 10 AM EST. In his written testimony, the new Fed Chair dismisses the recent stock market correction and fears of increased US debt, and that the central bank will continue to gradually raise interest rates given the favorable economic outlook. In the statement, Powell believes that inflation will move higher and settle in around the Fed’s 2% target and that the lag in wage growth was the result of low output gains, which he feels were transitory.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/26 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| 02/26 | New Home Sales | 647k | 593k | 625k | 643k |
| 02/26 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | -7.80% | -9.30% | -7.60% |
| 02/26 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 30 | 37.2 | 33.4 | — |
| 02/27 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.3b | -$74.4b | -$71.6b | -$72.3b |
| 02/27 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/27 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 02/27 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.00% | -3.70% | 2.80% | 2.60% |
| 02/27 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | -0.30% | 0.70% | — |
| 02/27 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | -0.20% | -0.60% | — |
| 02/27 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 02/27 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.60% | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 02/27 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 204.45 | 204.21 | 204.11 |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.60% | 0.64% | 0.75% | 0.74% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.35% | 6.30% | 6.41% | 6.36% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 196.23 | 195.94 | 195.78 |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.27% | 6.21% | 6.13% |
| 02/27 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | — | 14 | — |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.5 | — | 125.4 | — |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 155.3 | — |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 105.5 | — |
| 02/28 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -6.60% | — |
| 02/28 | Personal Consumption | 3.60% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 02/28 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/28 | GDP Price Index | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 02/28 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 02/28 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 64 | — | 65.7 | — |
| 02/28 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 02/28 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -1.80% | — |
| 02/28 | Revisions: Pending Home Sales | ||||
| 03/01 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/01 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/01 | Real Personal Spending | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Core MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Core YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 03/01 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 222k | — |
| 03/01 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | — | 1875k | — |
| 03/01 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.6 | 56.6 |
| 03/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | — | 55.9 | — |
| 03/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.6 | — | 59.1 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 70 | — | 72.7 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 65.4 | — |
| 03/01 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.30m | — | 13.10m | — |
| 03/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.20m | — | 17.07m | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.5 | — | 99.9 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.1 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90.2 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |