Another strong flight-to-quality trade emerged overnight, sending Treasury yields 5-8 bps lower across the curve, and U.S. equity futures are down another 1.5% ahead of the open. Coronavirus fears continue to fuel risk-off sentiment in global markets on general concerns that the virus is becoming a pandemic that will have a greater and more prolonged impact on global growth than initially expected. Reports surfaced last night that the first U.S. coronavirus case from an unknown source was confirmed in Northern California, which was the initial catalyst for the overnight Treasury rally. President Trump announced last night that Vice President Pence will lead the federal government’s preparations for increased exposure domestically. Markets are clearly turned overly pessimistic this week, but on a positive note, the number of coronavirus cases in China appeared to have already peaked, and the country has already taken steps to re-open factories and other businesses that were temporarily shut as a containment measure.
The January report on durable goods orders was better than expected despite the coronavirus fallout, with both core orders and core shipments increasing 1.1% from the prior month (+0.1% and +0.0% expected, respectively). Core orders are used as a proxy for business investment, and the December data was also revised higher
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
2/24/2020 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.18 | -0.25 | -0.35 | -0.51 |
2/24/2020 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | — |
2/25/2020 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.30% | 1.10% | 1.20% |
2/25/2020 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
2/25/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.40% | 0.43% | 0.48% | 0.47% |
2/25/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.85% | 2.85% | 2.55% | 2.54% |
2/25/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 218.73 | 218.68 | 218.65 |
2/25/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.60% | 3.75% | 3.54% | 3.46% |
2/25/2020 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 212.59 | 212.56 | 212.42 |
2/25/2020 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.2 | 130.7 | 131.6 | 130.4 |
2/25/2020 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 107.8 | 102.5 | 101.4 |
2/25/2020 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 165.1 | 175.3 | 173.9 |
2/25/2020 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 10 | -2 | 20 | — |
2/26/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.50% | -6.40% | — |
2/26/2020 | New Home Sales | 718k | 764k | 694k | 708k |
2/26/2020 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | 7.90% | -0.40% | 2.30% |
2/27/2020 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | — |
2/27/2020 | Personal Consumption | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
2/27/2020 | GDP Price Index | 1.40% | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
2/27/2020 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.30% | — |
2/27/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.40% | -0.20% | 2.40% | 2.90% |
2/27/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | 0.90% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
2/27/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | 1.10% | -0.80% | -0.50% |
2/27/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | 1.10% | -0.30% | -0.10% |
2/27/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | 219k | 210k | 211k |
2/27/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1711k | 1724k | 1726k | 1733k |
2/27/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 65.6 | — |
2/27/2020 | Revisions: Pending Home Sales | ||||
2/27/2020 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 3.00% | — | -4.90% | — |
2/27/2020 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2.10% | — | 6.80% | — |
2/27/2020 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -1 | — | -1 | — |
2/28/2020 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$68.5b | — | -$68.3b | — |
2/28/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
2/28/2020 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | 0.00% |
2/28/2020 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/28/2020 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
2/28/2020 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
2/28/2020 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
2/28/2020 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.80% | — | 1.60% | — |
2/28/2020 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/28/2020 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.60% | — |
2/28/2020 | MNI Chicago PMI | 46 | — | 42.9 | — |
2/28/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.7 | — | 100.9 | — |
2/28/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 113.8 | — |
2/28/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 92.6 | — |
2/28/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
2/28/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
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