February 27, 2020 Headlines

Another strong flight-to-quality trade emerged overnight, sending Treasury yields 5-8 bps lower across the curve, and U.S. equity futures are down another 1.5% ahead of the open. Coronavirus fears continue to fuel risk-off sentiment in global markets on general concerns that the virus is becoming a pandemic that will have a greater and more prolonged impact on global growth than initially expected. Reports surfaced last night that the first U.S. coronavirus case from an unknown source was confirmed in Northern California, which was the initial catalyst for the overnight Treasury rally.  President Trump announced last night that Vice President Pence will lead the federal government’s preparations for increased exposure domestically. Markets are clearly turned overly pessimistic this week, but on a positive note, the number of coronavirus cases in China appeared to have already peaked, and the country has already taken steps to re-open factories and other businesses that were temporarily shut as a containment measure.

The January report on durable goods orders was better than expected despite the coronavirus fallout, with both core orders and core shipments increasing 1.1% from the prior month (+0.1% and +0.0% expected, respectively). Core orders are used as a proxy for business investment, and the December data was also revised higher

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/24/2020Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.18-0.25-0.35-0.51
2/24/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity01.2-0.2—
2/25/2020House Price Purchase Index QoQ—1.30%1.10%1.20%
2/25/2020FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.60%0.20%0.30%
2/25/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.43%0.48%0.47%
2/25/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.85%2.85%2.55%2.54%
2/25/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index—218.73218.68218.65
2/25/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.60%3.75%3.54%3.46%
2/25/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—212.59212.56212.42
2/25/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.2130.7131.6130.4
2/25/2020Conf. Board Expectations—107.8102.5101.4
2/25/2020Conf. Board Present Situation—165.1175.3173.9
2/25/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index10-220—
2/26/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—1.50%-6.40%—
2/26/2020New Home Sales718k764k694k708k
2/26/2020New Home Sales MoM3.50%7.90%-0.40%2.30%
2/27/2020GDP Annualized QoQ2.10%2.10%2.10%—
2/27/2020Personal Consumption1.70%1.70%1.80%—
2/27/2020GDP Price Index1.40%1.30%1.40%—
2/27/2020Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.20%1.30%—
2/27/2020Durable Goods Orders-1.40%-0.20%2.40%2.90%
2/27/2020Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.90%-0.10%0.10%
2/27/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%1.10%-0.80%-0.50%
2/27/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%1.10%-0.30%-0.10%
2/27/2020Initial Jobless Claims212k219k210k211k
2/27/2020Continuing Claims1711k1724k1726k1733k
2/27/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——65.6—
2/27/2020Revisions: Pending Home Sales
2/27/2020Pending Home Sales MoM3.00%—-4.90%—
2/27/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY2.10%—6.80%—
2/27/2020Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-1—-1—
2/28/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$68.5b—-$68.3b—
2/28/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%—-0.20%—
2/28/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.20%—0.00%0.00%
2/28/2020Personal Income0.40%—0.20%—
2/28/2020Personal Spending0.30%—0.30%—
2/28/2020Real Personal Spending0.20%—0.10%—
2/28/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.20%—0.30%—
2/28/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.80%—1.60%—
2/28/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%—0.20%—
2/28/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%—1.60%—
2/28/2020MNI Chicago PMI46—42.9—
2/28/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment100.7—100.9—
2/28/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions——113.8—
2/28/2020U. of Mich. Expectations——92.6—
2/28/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.50%—
2/28/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.30%—

 

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