Asian and European equity markets were lower overnight in a follow through to yesterday’s weakness in U.S. stocks. Treasuries are little changed this morning, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 7 points. The catalyst for yesterday’s sell-off in both stocks and Treasuries (particularly short/intermediate maturities) was the Q&A session of new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance before the House Financial Services Committee Powell was upbeat regarding growth and inflation expectations, and whether he intended to or not, he seemed to suggest that FOMC members may increase their fed funds forecasts for 2018 in the March SEP (from 3 hikes to 4 hikes). This was Powell’s first official appearance before Congress, so some are downplaying his hawkish comments somewhat (i.e., rookie that got caught up in the moment and was less guarded with his words). Nevertheless, Powell did reaffirm the Fed’s objective of continuing with gradual normalization for the foreseeable future, and he expressed confidence that this policy will be effective in containing inflation.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

02/26Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.
02/26New Home Sales647k593k625k643k
02/26New Home Sales MoM3.50%-7.80%-9.30%-7.60%
02/26Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3037.233.4
02/27Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.3b-$74.4b-$71.6b-$72.3b
02/27Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.70%0.40%0.60%
02/27Retail Inventories MoM0.80%0.20%0.30%
02/27Durable Goods Orders-2.00%-3.70%2.80%2.60%
02/27Durables Ex Transportation0.40%-0.30%0.70%
02/27Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.20%-0.60%
02/27Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.10%0.40%0.70%
02/27House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.60%1.40%1.50%
02/27FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%0.50%
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index204.45204.21204.11
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.64%0.75%0.74%
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.35%6.30%6.41%6.36%
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index196.23195.94195.78
02/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.27%6.21%6.13%
02/27Richmond Fed Manufact. Index152814
02/27Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126.5130.8125.4124.3
02/27Conf. Board Present Situation162.4155.3154.7
02/27Conf. Board Expectations109.7105.5104
02/28MBA Mortgage Applications2.70%-6.60%
02/28GDP Annualized QoQ2.50%2.50%2.60%
02/28Personal Consumption3.60%3.80%3.80%
02/28GDP Price Index2.40%2.30%2.40%
02/28Core PCE QoQ1.90%1.90%1.90%
02/28Chicago Purchasing Manager64.161.965.7
02/28Revisions: Pending Home Sales    
02/28Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-4.70%0.50%0.00%
02/28Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.70%-1.80%
03/01Personal Income0.30%0.40%
03/01Personal Spending0.20%0.40%
03/01Real Personal Spending-0.10%0.30%
03/01PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.10%
03/01PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.70%
03/01PCE Core MoM0.30%0.20%
03/01PCE Core YoY1.50%1.50%
03/01Initial Jobless Claims225k222k
03/01Continuing Claims1925k1875k
03/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.656.6
03/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.955.9
03/01Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.70%
03/01ISM Manufacturing58.659.1
03/01ISM Employment54.2
03/01ISM Prices Paid7072.7
03/01ISM New Orders65.4
03/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.30m13.10m
03/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.20m17.07m
03/02U. of Mich. Sentiment99.599.9
03/02U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.1
03/02U. of Mich. Expectations90.2
03/02U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
03/02U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%