Asian and European equity markets were lower overnight in a follow through to yesterday’s weakness in U.S. stocks. Treasuries are little changed this morning, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 7 points. The catalyst for yesterday’s sell-off in both stocks and Treasuries (particularly short/intermediate maturities) was the Q&A session of new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance before the House Financial Services Committee Powell was upbeat regarding growth and inflation expectations, and whether he intended to or not, he seemed to suggest that FOMC members may increase their fed funds forecasts for 2018 in the March SEP (from 3 hikes to 4 hikes). This was Powell’s first official appearance before Congress, so some are downplaying his hawkish comments somewhat (i.e., rookie that got caught up in the moment and was less guarded with his words). Nevertheless, Powell did reaffirm the Fed’s objective of continuing with gradual normalization for the foreseeable future, and he expressed confidence that this policy will be effective in containing inflation.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/26 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| 02/26 | New Home Sales | 647k | 593k | 625k | 643k |
| 02/26 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | -7.80% | -9.30% | -7.60% |
| 02/26 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 30 | 37.2 | 33.4 | — |
| 02/27 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.3b | -$74.4b | -$71.6b | -$72.3b |
| 02/27 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/27 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 02/27 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.00% | -3.70% | 2.80% | 2.60% |
| 02/27 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | -0.30% | 0.70% | — |
| 02/27 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | -0.20% | -0.60% | — |
| 02/27 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 02/27 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.60% | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 02/27 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 204.45 | 204.21 | 204.11 |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.60% | 0.64% | 0.75% | 0.74% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.35% | 6.30% | 6.41% | 6.36% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 196.23 | 195.94 | 195.78 |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.27% | 6.21% | 6.13% |
| 02/27 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | 28 | 14 | — |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.5 | 130.8 | 125.4 | 124.3 |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 162.4 | 155.3 | 154.7 |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 109.7 | 105.5 | 104 |
| 02/28 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.70% | -6.60% | — |
| 02/28 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.60% | — |
| 02/28 | Personal Consumption | 3.60% | 3.80% | 3.80% | — |
| 02/28 | GDP Price Index | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 02/28 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% | — |
| 02/28 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 64.1 | 61.9 | 65.7 | — |
| 02/28 | Revisions: Pending Home Sales | ||||
| 02/28 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | -4.70% | 0.50% | 0.00% |
| 02/28 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | -1.70% | -1.80% | — |
| 03/01 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/01 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/01 | Real Personal Spending | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Core MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Core YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 03/01 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 222k | — |
| 03/01 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | — | 1875k | — |
| 03/01 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.6 | 56.6 |
| 03/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | — | 55.9 | — |
| 03/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.6 | — | 59.1 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 70 | — | 72.7 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 65.4 | — |
| 03/01 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.30m | — | 13.10m | — |
| 03/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.20m | — | 17.07m | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.5 | — | 99.9 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.1 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90.2 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |