February 3, 2020 Headlines

The tone in U.S. risk markets is improved to start the day despite overnight turmoil in Chinese markets. The latter opened for the first time since January 23 (extended Lunar New Year holiday), and stocks were down more than 8% at the open on coronavirus fears. The Chinese government took measures to offset the selloff, including central bank liquidity injections. U.S. investors faded the action in Chinese markets, with S&P 500 futures up as much as 0.81% in early trading (currently +0.55%), and Treasury yields are up 2-4 bps across the curve. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the January jobs report on Friday, and the final January Markit PMI estimates will be released on Thursday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
2/3/2020 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51.7 51.7
2/3/2020 Construction Spending MoM 0.50% 0.60%
2/3/2020 ISM Manufacturing 48.5 47.2 47.8
2/3/2020 ISM New Orders 47.7 46.8 47.6
2/3/2020 ISM Prices Paid 51 51.7
2/3/2020 ISM Employment 45.1 45.2
2/3/2020 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.80m 16.70m
2/4/2020 Factory Orders 1.20% -0.70%
2/4/2020 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.10% 0.30%
2/4/2020 Durable Goods Orders 2.40% 2.40%
2/4/2020 Durables Ex Transportation -0.10% -0.10%
2/4/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.90% -0.90%
2/4/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.40%
2/5/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 7.20%
2/5/2020 ADP Employment Change 158k 202k
2/5/2020 Trade Balance -$48.2b -$43.1b
2/5/2020 Markit US Services PMI 53.2 53.2
2/5/2020 Markit US Composite PMI 53.1
2/5/2020 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 55.1 55 54.9
2/6/2020 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -25.20%
2/6/2020 Unit Labor Costs 1.30% 2.50%
2/6/2020 Nonfarm Productivity 1.60% -0.20%
2/6/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 216k
2/6/2020 Continuing Claims 1720k 1703k
2/6/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 67.3
2/7/2020 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 160k 145k
2/7/2020 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -14k
2/7/2020 Change in Private Payrolls 150k 139k
2/7/2020 Change in Manufact. Payrolls -3k -12k
2/7/2020 Unemployment Rate 3.50% 3.50%
2/7/2020 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.10%
2/7/2020 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.00% 2.90%
2/7/2020 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 34.3
2/7/2020 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20% 63.20%
2/7/2020 Underemployment Rate 6.70%
2/7/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% -0.10%
2/7/2020 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.10% 1.50%
2/7/2020 Consumer Credit $15.000b $12.513b






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