February 3, 2021 Headlines

In a continuation of yesterday’s momentum, the Treasury curve is 2-3 basis points steeper this morning on stimulus expectations general risk-on sentiment. Congressional Democrats continue to move forward with the necessary steps to push much of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion aid package through both houses via budget reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority to pass. The mortgage refinance wave remains in force according to weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA mortgage applications index rose 8.1% last week, fueled by a 11.4% increase in refinance applications. Purchase applications rose just 0.1%, and the average survey rates were little changed from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159.259.1
02/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.90%1.00%0.90%1.10%
02/01/21ISM Manufacturing6058.760.760.5
02/01/21ISM Prices Paid7682.177.6
02/01/21ISM New Orders61.167.967.5
02/01/21ISM Employment52.651.551.7
02/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.15m16.63m16.27m
02/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications8.10%-4.10%
02/03/21ADP Employment Change70k174k-123k-78k
02/03/21Markit US Composite PMI58
02/03/21Markit US Services PMI57.457.5
02/03/21ISM Services Index56.757.257.7
02/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY134.50%
02/04/21Unit Labor Costs4.00%-6.60%
02/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.00%4.60%
02/04/21Initial Jobless Claims830k847k
02/04/21Continuing Claims4700k4771k
02/04/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.7
02/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
02/04/21Factory Orders0.70%1.00%
02/04/21Durable Goods Orders0.20%0.20%
02/04/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
02/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.60%
02/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%
02/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
02/05/21Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls88k-140k
02/05/21Change in Private Payrolls105k-95k
02/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls31k38k
02/05/21Unemployment Rate6.70%6.70%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.80%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%5.10%
02/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
02/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%
02/05/21Trade Balance-$65.7b-$68.1b
02/05/21Underemployment Rate11.70%
02/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$15.274b

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