February 4, 2020 Headlines

A risk-on trade emerged in global markets overnight after the Chinese government took additional stimulus measures, injecting nearly $60 billion via repo operations. Virtually all major global equity indices are higher on the day (Euro Stoxx +1.6%, Hang Seng 1.2%), and S&P 500 futures are up 1.3% ahead of the open. Treasury yields are rising amid the more positive risk tone, with yields up 5-7 bps across the curve, and both mortgage and credit spreads are tighter on the day.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

2/4/2020Factory Orders1.20%-0.70%
2/4/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%0.30%
2/4/2020Durable Goods Orders2.40%2.40%
2/4/2020Durables Ex Transportation-0.10%-0.10%
2/4/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.90%-0.90%
2/4/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.40%
2/5/2020MBA Mortgage Applications7.20%
2/5/2020ADP Employment Change158k202k
2/5/2020Trade Balance-$48.2b-$43.1b
2/5/2020Markit US Services PMI53.253.2
2/5/2020Markit US Composite PMI53.1
2/5/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index55.15554.9
2/6/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY-25.20%
2/6/2020Unit Labor Costs1.30%2.50%
2/6/2020Nonfarm Productivity1.60%-0.20%
2/6/2020Initial Jobless Claims215k216k
2/6/2020Continuing Claims1720k1703k
2/6/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort67.3
2/7/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
2/7/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls161k145k
2/7/2020Change in Private Payrolls150k139k
2/7/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls-3k-12k
2/7/2020Unemployment Rate3.50%3.50%
2/7/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%
2/7/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%2.90%
2/7/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.3
2/7/2020Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.20%
2/7/2020Underemployment Rate6.70%
2/7/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%
2/7/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%1.50%
2/7/2020Consumer Credit$15.000b$12.513b


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