February 4, 2021 Headlines

There is a slight risk on tone in the market which has equity futures pointing to a higher open while long-end Treasury prices are lower this morning. The sentiment was further buoyed by a better-than-expected jobless claims number. The median forecast called for an 830,000 increase in new jobless claims, 51,000 higher than the actual reading of 779,000. Initial jobless claims have fallen for the last three weeks and have hit the lowest level since November. While the number remains high, the recent trend combined with increasing vaccinations is giving markets hope of an economic recovery.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

02/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159.259.1
02/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.90%1.00%0.90%1.10%
02/01/21ISM Manufacturing6058.760.760.5
02/01/21ISM Prices Paid7682.177.6
02/01/21ISM New Orders61.167.967.5
02/01/21ISM Employment52.651.551.7
02/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.15m16.63m16.27m
02/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications8.10%-4.10%
02/03/21ADP Employment Change70k174k-123k-78k
02/03/21Markit US Composite PMI58.758
02/03/21Markit US Services PMI57.458.357.5
02/03/21ISM Services Index56.758.757.257.7
02/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY17.40%134.50%
02/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.00%-4.80%4.60%5.10%
02/04/21Unit Labor Costs4.00%6.80%-6.60%-7.00%
02/04/21Initial Jobless Claims830k779k847k812k
02/04/21Continuing Claims4700k4592k4771k4785k
02/04/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.7
02/04/21Factory Orders0.70%1.00%
02/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
02/04/21Durable Goods Orders0.20%0.20%
02/04/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
02/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.60%
02/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%
02/05/21Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls100k-140k
02/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
02/05/21Change in Private Payrolls118k-95k
02/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls31k38k
02/05/21Unemployment Rate6.70%6.70%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.80%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%5.10%
02/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
02/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%
02/05/21Underemployment Rate11.70%
02/05/21Trade Balance-$65.7b-$68.1b
02/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$15.274b

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