February 6, 2023 Headlines

The bond market continues to reprice following Friday’s big payrolls surprise. Treasury yields are 13 basis points higher to start the day for 2-year to 5-year maturities and cumulatively up 32 basis points since Thursday’s close. Markets have been fighting Fed guidance for several weeks now, pricing for 50 basis points of rate cuts in the second half of the year and a terminal rate of less than 5%. However, the post-jobs selloff now has fed funds futures pricing a 5.09% terminal rate in Q2 and just 25 bps of rate cuts later this year. This week’s economic data calendar is relatively uneventful, but there will be several Fed leaders speaking, beginning with Fed Chair Powell tomorrow.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
2/7/2023 Trade Balance -$68.5b -$61.5b
2/7/2023 Consumer Credit $25.000b $27.962b
2/8/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -9.00%
2/8/2023 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -0.20% -0.60%
2/8/2023 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.10%
2/9/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 190k 183k
2/9/2023 Continuing Claims 1663k 1655k
2/10/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 65 64.9
2/10/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 68 68.4
2/10/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 63 62.7
2/10/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.00% 3.90%
2/10/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 2.90%
2/10/2023 Monthly Budget Statement -$55.0b -$85.0b
2/10/2023 Revisions: CPI

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