Treasury prices are moving higher this morning on more weak economic data from Germany, as well as a dovish policy shift from the Australian central bank. The 10-year yield is back below 2.70%, and the curve is slightly flatter on the day. Markets are also responding to a Bloomberg report that says the European Central Bank (ECB) sees the need to provide new long-term loans to banks, which follows a Reuters story from yesterday effectively stating the opposite.

The Senate Banking Committee has tentatively scheduled a confirmation hearing next week for Mark Calabria, the White House nominee for heading the FHFA. If confirmed, Calabria is expected to press forward with GSE reform efforts, particularly as it relates to the decade-long conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calabria is currently the chief economist for Vice President Mike Pence.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/4/2019Factory Orders Released Live on Web
2/4/2019Factory Orders0.30%-0.60%-2.10%
2/4/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans-1.30%0.30%0.20%
2/4/2019Durable Goods Orders1.50%0.70%0.80%
2/4/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.00%-0.40%-0.30%
2/4/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%-0.60%-0.60%
2/4/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.20%-0.10%
2/5/2019Markit US Services PMI54.254.254.2
2/5/2019Markit US Composite PMI54.454.5
2/5/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index57.156.757.658
2/6/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-3.00%
2/6/2019Productivity Release with Limited Data Due to Shutdown
2/6/2019Trade Balance Released Live on the Web
2/6/2019Trade Balance-$54.0b-$49.3b-$55.5b-$55.7b
2/7/2019Initial Jobless Claims221k253k
2/7/2019Continuing Claims1733k1782k
2/7/2019Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
2/7/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.4
2/7/2019Consumer Credit$17.000b$22.149b