Treasury prices are moving higher this morning on more weak economic data from Germany, as well as a dovish policy shift from the Australian central bank. The 10-year yield is back below 2.70%, and the curve is slightly flatter on the day. Markets are also responding to a Bloomberg report that says the European Central Bank (ECB) sees the need to provide new long-term loans to banks, which follows a Reuters story from yesterday effectively stating the opposite.
The Senate Banking Committee has tentatively scheduled a confirmation hearing next week for Mark Calabria, the White House nominee for heading the FHFA. If confirmed, Calabria is expected to press forward with GSE reform efforts, particularly as it relates to the decade-long conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calabria is currently the chief economist for Vice President Mike Pence.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 2/4/2019 | Factory Orders Released Live on Web | ||||
| 2/4/2019 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | -0.60% | -2.10% | — |
| 2/4/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | -1.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 2/4/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.50% | 0.70% | 0.80% | — |
| 2/4/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.30% | — |
| 2/4/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.10% | -0.60% | -0.60% | — |
| 2/4/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | -0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 2/5/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.2 | 54.2 | 54.2 | — |
| 2/5/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.4 | 54.5 | — |
| 2/5/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 57.1 | 56.7 | 57.6 | 58 |
| 2/6/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | -3.00% | — |
| 2/6/2019 | Productivity Release with Limited Data Due to Shutdown | ||||
| 2/6/2019 | Trade Balance Released Live on the Web | ||||
| 2/6/2019 | Trade Balance | -$54.0b | -$49.3b | -$55.5b | -$55.7b |
| 2/7/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 221k | — | 253k | — |
| 2/7/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | — | 1782k | — |
| 2/7/2019 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 2/7/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.4 | — |
| 2/7/2019 | Consumer Credit | $17.000b | — | $22.149b | — |