The tone in risk markets is improved this morning in response to news that the Senate was able to reach a 2-year budget agreement. Asian equity markets were mostly higher, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 18 points. European equities are lower today on hawkish comments from both British and Eurozone central bankers. Treasuries are selling off again this morning, with the 10-year yield up to 2.87%, and the yield curve (2yr/10yr spread) is 3 basis points steeper to 0.74%.  On the data front, initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 in the week ended February 3. This is the second lowest reading since 1973 (lowest was four weeks ago), and this is just one of several metrics that point to a relatively tight labor market.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/05 Markit US Services PMI 53.3 53.3 53.3
02/05 Markit US Composite PMI 53.8 53.8
02/05 ISM Non-Manf. Composite 56.7 59.9 55.9 56
02/06 Trade Balance -$52.1b -$53.1b -$50.5b -$50.4b
02/06 JOLTS Job Openings 5961 5811 5879 5978
02/07 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.70% -2.60%
02/07 Consumer Credit $20.000b $18.447b $27.951b $31.019b
02/07 Revisions: Consumer Price Index
02/08 Initial Jobless Claims 232k 221k 230k
02/08 Continuing Claims 1940k 1923k 1953k 1956k
02/08 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey (Table)        
02/08 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 54.6
02/08 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.88%
02/08 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 1.23%
02/09 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20%
02/09 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.40% 1.50%