February 8, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields continue to leak higher as the White House and congressional Democrats press forward with efforts to pass the larger $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took to the Sunday morning news to build support for the Biden plan, suggesting that a quicker economic recovery is heavily dependent on a larger aid package.  She was largely dismissive of inflation concerns, saying “we have the tools to deal with that risk.” Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary to Clinton and senior economic advisor to Obama, took a contrary position yesterday. While acknowledging that some relief is needed, Summers warned that “stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/08/21Revisions: CPI
02/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism96.895.9
02/09/21JOLTS Job Openings64006527
02/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications8.10%
02/10/21CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
02/10/21CPI YoY1.50%1.40%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%
02/10/21CPI Index NSA261.8260.474
02/10/21CPI Core Index SA270.592270.117269.94
02/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.90%5.30%
02/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.70%4.10%
02/10/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%
02/10/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.10%
02/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$187.5b-$32.6b
02/10/21-02/13/21Mortgage Delinquencies7.65%
02/10/21-02/13/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.59%
02/11/21Initial Jobless Claims755k779k
02/11/21Continuing Claims4410k4592k
02/11/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.6
02/12/21Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment8179
02/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8986.7
02/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations7674
02/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
02/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
02/12/21Revisions: PPI

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