February 8, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields continue to leak higher as the White House and congressional Democrats press forward with efforts to pass the larger $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took to the Sunday morning news to build support for the Biden plan, suggesting that a quicker economic recovery is heavily dependent on a larger aid package. She was largely dismissive of inflation concerns, saying “we have the tools to deal with that risk.” Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary to Clinton and senior economic advisor to Obama, took a contrary position yesterday. While acknowledging that some relief is needed, Summers warned that “stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/08/21	Revisions: CPI
02/09/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	96.8	—	95.9	—
02/09/21	JOLTS Job Openings	6400	—	6527	—
02/10/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	8.10%	—
02/10/21	CPI MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	0.20%
02/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	0.00%
02/10/21	CPI YoY	1.50%	—	1.40%	—
02/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.50%	—	1.60%	—
02/10/21	CPI Index NSA	261.8	—	260.474	—
02/10/21	CPI Core Index SA	270.592	—	270.117	269.94
02/10/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	4.90%	5.30%
02/10/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	3.70%	4.10%
02/10/21	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.20%	—
02/10/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
02/10/21	Monthly Budget Statement	-$187.5b	—	-$32.6b	—
02/10/21-02/13/21	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	—	7.65%	—
02/10/21-02/13/21	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	—	0.59%	—
02/11/21	Initial Jobless Claims	755k	—	779k	—
02/11/21	Continuing Claims	4410k	—	4592k	—
02/11/21	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.6	—
02/12/21	Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	81	—	79	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	89	—	86.7	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	76	—	74	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
02/12/21	Revisions: PPI

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