February 8, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking wider following a relatively quiet overnight session. The 5-year yield is hovering around 1.8%, the highest since July 2019, when the top end of the fed funds target range was at 2.5%. Equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks as well. For today’s calendar, this month’s 3-year Treasury note auction will occur after lunch today, and fresh 10-year note supply will come tomorrow. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped more than expected in January, with 22% of survey respondents reporting that inflation was their single most important business problem. That figure was unchanged from December, which was the highest level since 1981. On a positive note related to inflation, used car prices might be showing signs of stabilization. The Manheim used vehicle pricing index was essentially unchanged in January versus the prior month, although still up 45% year-over-year.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/07/22Consumer Credit$21.900b$18.898b$39.991b$38.821b
02/08/22NFIB Small Business Optimism97.597.198.9
02/08/22Trade Balance-$83.0b-$80.7b-$80.2b-$79.3b
02/08/22Revisions: CPI
02/09/22MBA Mortgage Applications12.00%
02/09/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.10%2.10%
02/09/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.50%1.30%
02/10/22Initial Jobless Claims230k238k
02/10/22Continuing Claims1615k1628k
02/10/22CPI MoM0.40%0.50%0.60%
02/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
02/10/22CPI YoY7.30%7.00%
02/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.90%5.50%
02/10/22CPI Index NSA280.447278.802
02/10/22CPI Core Index SA286.11284.759284.77
02/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.40%-2.00%
02/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-2.30%-2.00%
02/10/22Monthly Budget Statement$20.1b-$21.3b
02/10/22Revisions: PPI
02/11/22Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/11/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6767.2
02/11/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions72.272
02/11/22U. of Mich. Expectations6564.1
02/11/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%4.90%
02/11/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%
02/11/22Revisions: PPI


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