February 8, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking wider following a relatively quiet overnight session. The 5-year yield is hovering around 1.8%, the highest since July 2019, when the top end of the fed funds target range was at 2.5%. Equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks as well. For today’s calendar, this month’s 3-year Treasury note auction will occur after lunch today, and fresh 10-year note supply will come tomorrow. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped more than expected in January, with 22% of survey respondents reporting that inflation was their single most important business problem. That figure was unchanged from December, which was the highest level since 1981. On a positive note related to inflation, used car prices might be showing signs of stabilization. The Manheim used vehicle pricing index was essentially unchanged in January versus the prior month, although still up 45% year-over-year.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/07/22	Consumer Credit	$21.900b	$18.898b	$39.991b	$38.821b
02/08/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97.5	97.1	98.9	—
02/08/22	Trade Balance	-$83.0b	-$80.7b	-$80.2b	-$79.3b
02/08/22	Revisions: CPI
02/09/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	12.00%	—
02/09/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.10%	—	2.10%	—
02/09/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.50%	—	1.30%	—
02/10/22	Initial Jobless Claims	230k	—	238k	—
02/10/22	Continuing Claims	1615k	—	1628k	—
02/10/22	CPI MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	0.60%
02/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
02/10/22	CPI YoY	7.30%	—	7.00%	—
02/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.90%	—	5.50%	—
02/10/22	CPI Index NSA	280.447	—	278.802	—
02/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	286.11	—	284.759	284.77
02/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-2.40%	-2.00%
02/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-2.30%	-2.00%
02/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	$20.1b	—	-$21.3b	—
02/10/22	Revisions: PPI
02/11/22	Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/11/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	67.2	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	72.2	—	72	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	65	—	64.1	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.00%	—	4.90%	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.10%	—
02/11/22	Revisions: PPI

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