Risk markets are weaker again today, pushing Treasury prices higher across the curve. It’s difficult to point to a single catalyst for today’s activity, but if anything, it’s the same narrative of global growth concerns and U.S./China trade relations. Regarding the former, the Australian central bank downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts, which sparked a bid for Treasuries overnight. On trade, Larry Kudlow suggested yesterday in a Fox Business interview that U.S. and Chinese officials remain far apart in their negotiations, which pushed stocks further into the red. However, a Wall Street Article this morning offers a more optimistic perspective. Both sides have been receiving strong encouragement from prominent business leaders to get a deal done and avoid the potential economic and market consequences. Additionally, the article notes the recent motivation within the White house to get something done and “keep the economy humming” ahead of the 2020 election.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/4/2019Factory Orders Released Live on Web
2/4/2019Factory Orders0.30%-0.60%-2.10%
2/4/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans-1.30%0.30%0.20%
2/4/2019Durable Goods Orders1.50%0.70%0.80%
2/4/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.00%-0.40%-0.30%
2/4/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%-0.60%-0.60%
2/4/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.20%-0.10%
2/5/2019Markit US Services PMI54.254.254.2
2/5/2019Markit US Composite PMI54.454.5
2/5/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index57.156.757.658
2/6/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%-3.00%
2/6/2019Productivity Release with Limited Data Due to Shutdown
2/6/2019Trade Balance Released Live on the Web
2/6/2019Trade Balance-$54.0b-$49.3b-$55.5b-$55.7b
2/7/2019Initial Jobless Claims221k234k253k
2/7/2019Continuing Claims1733k1736k1782k1778k
2/7/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.257.4
2/7/2019Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey (Table)
2/7/2019Consumer Credit$17.000b$16.554b$22.149b$22.408b