February 9, 2021 Headlines

Better demand by Asian investors is pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter this morning, and U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open. House Democrats have unveiled the first draft of the Covid relief bill, which still includes the $15 minimum wage hike. A vote on the House floor is expected the week of February 22, and it is constructed in a way that would allow passage in the Senate with just a simple majority.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unexpectedly fell to a 95 reading in January, the lowest since last May and down 9 points from the recent peak in October. A big contributor to the monthly decline was business owner expectations for business conditions over the next six months, which fell to the lowest level since November 2013.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/08/21Revisions: CPI
02/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism979595.9
02/09/21JOLTS Job Openings64006527
02/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications8.10%
02/10/21CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
02/10/21CPI YoY1.50%1.40%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%
02/10/21CPI Index NSA261.8260.474
02/10/21CPI Core Index SA270.592270.117269.94
02/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.90%5.30%
02/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.70%4.10%
02/10/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%
02/10/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.10%
02/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$150.0b-$32.6b
02/10/21-02/13/21Mortgage Delinquencies7.65%
02/10/21-02/13/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.59%
02/11/21Initial Jobless Claims758k779k
02/11/21Continuing Claims4420k4592k
02/11/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.6
02/12/21Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment80.979
02/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8986.7
02/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations7674
02/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
02/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
02/12/21Revisions: PPI

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