February 9, 2021 Headlines

Better demand by Asian investors is pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter this morning, and U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open. House Democrats have unveiled the first draft of the Covid relief bill, which still includes the $15 minimum wage hike. A vote on the House floor is expected the week of February 22, and it is constructed in a way that would allow passage in the Senate with just a simple majority.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unexpectedly fell to a 95 reading in January, the lowest since last May and down 9 points from the recent peak in October. A big contributor to the monthly decline was business owner expectations for business conditions over the next six months, which fell to the lowest level since November 2013.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/08/21	Revisions: CPI
02/09/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97	95	95.9	—
02/09/21	JOLTS Job Openings	6400	—	6527	—
02/10/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	8.10%	—
02/10/21	CPI MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	0.20%
02/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	0.00%
02/10/21	CPI YoY	1.50%	—	1.40%	—
02/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.50%	—	1.60%	—
02/10/21	CPI Index NSA	261.8	—	260.474	—
02/10/21	CPI Core Index SA	270.592	—	270.117	269.94
02/10/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	4.90%	5.30%
02/10/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	3.70%	4.10%
02/10/21	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.20%	—
02/10/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
02/10/21	Monthly Budget Statement	-$150.0b	—	-$32.6b	—
02/10/21-02/13/21	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	—	7.65%	—
02/10/21-02/13/21	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	—	0.59%	—
02/11/21	Initial Jobless Claims	758k	—	779k	—
02/11/21	Continuing Claims	4420k	—	4592k	—
02/11/21	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.6	—
02/12/21	Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	80.9	—	79	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	89	—	86.7	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	76	—	74	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
02/12/21	Revisions: PPI

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