February 9, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries finally caught a bid overnight after front-end yields rose to pre-pandemic levels in recent days. Without other catalysts for today’s rally, it appears that buyers may be emerging from the shadows given where forward rates currently are. Risk markets are responding positively to even a modest rally in Treasuries, with S&P 500 futures up 0.93% a little less than an hour before the open. On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 8.1% last week. Refi application activity cooled 7.3%, and purchase apps were down 9.6% versus the prior week. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose another 5 basis points to 3.83%, up from 2.96% a year prior. The government will sell $37 billion of 10-year notes this afternoon, and two Fed leaders (Bowman and Mester) will be speaking at separate events later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/07/22	Consumer Credit	$21.900b	$18.898b	$39.991b	$38.821b
02/08/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97.5	97.1	98.9	—
02/08/22	Trade Balance	-$83.0b	-$80.7b	-$80.2b	-$79.3b
02/08/22	Revisions: CPI
02/09/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-8.10%	12.00%	—
02/09/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.10%	—	2.10%	—
02/09/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	1.50%	—	1.30%	—
02/10/22	Initial Jobless Claims	230k	—	238k	—
02/10/22	Continuing Claims	1615k	—	1628k	—
02/10/22	CPI MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	0.60%
02/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
02/10/22	CPI YoY	7.20%	—	7.00%	—
02/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.90%	—	5.50%	—
02/10/22	CPI Index NSA	280.421	—	278.802	—
02/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	286.065	—	284.759	284.77
02/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-2.40%	-2.00%
02/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-2.30%	-2.00%
02/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	$21.6b	—	-$21.3b	—
02/10/22	Revisions: PPI
02/11/22	Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/11/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	67.2	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	72.1	—	72	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	64.5	—	64.1	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.00%	—	4.90%	—
02/11/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.10%	—

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