February 9, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries finally caught a bid overnight after front-end yields rose to pre-pandemic levels in recent days. Without other catalysts for today’s rally, it appears that buyers may be emerging from the shadows given where forward rates currently are. Risk markets are responding positively to even a modest rally in Treasuries, with S&P 500 futures up 0.93% a little less than an hour before the open. On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 8.1% last week. Refi application activity cooled 7.3%, and purchase apps were down 9.6% versus the prior week.  The average 30-year mortgage rate rose another 5 basis points to 3.83%, up from 2.96% a year prior. The government will sell $37 billion of 10-year notes this afternoon, and two Fed leaders (Bowman and Mester) will be speaking at separate events later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/07/22 Consumer Credit $21.900b $18.898b $39.991b $38.821b
02/08/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 97.5 97.1 98.9
02/08/22 Trade Balance -$83.0b -$80.7b -$80.2b -$79.3b
02/08/22 Revisions: CPI
02/09/22 MBA Mortgage Applications -8.10% 12.00%
02/09/22 Wholesale Inventories MoM 2.10% 2.10%
02/09/22 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.50% 1.30%
02/10/22 Initial Jobless Claims 230k 238k
02/10/22 Continuing Claims 1615k 1628k
02/10/22 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.50% 0.60%
02/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.60%
02/10/22 CPI YoY 7.20% 7.00%
02/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.90% 5.50%
02/10/22 CPI Index NSA 280.421 278.802
02/10/22 CPI Core Index SA 286.065 284.759 284.77
02/10/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -2.40% -2.00%
02/10/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -2.30% -2.00%
02/10/22 Monthly Budget Statement $21.6b -$21.3b
02/10/22 Revisions: PPI
02/11/22 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/11/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 67 67.2
02/11/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 72.1 72
02/11/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 64.5 64.1
02/11/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.00% 4.90%
02/11/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.10%

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