February 9, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries finally caught a bid overnight after front-end yields rose to pre-pandemic levels in recent days. Without other catalysts for today’s rally, it appears that buyers may be emerging from the shadows given where forward rates currently are. Risk markets are responding positively to even a modest rally in Treasuries, with S&P 500 futures up 0.93% a little less than an hour before the open. On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 8.1% last week. Refi application activity cooled 7.3%, and purchase apps were down 9.6% versus the prior week.  The average 30-year mortgage rate rose another 5 basis points to 3.83%, up from 2.96% a year prior. The government will sell $37 billion of 10-year notes this afternoon, and two Fed leaders (Bowman and Mester) will be speaking at separate events later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/07/22Consumer Credit$21.900b$18.898b$39.991b$38.821b
02/08/22NFIB Small Business Optimism97.597.198.9
02/08/22Trade Balance-$83.0b-$80.7b-$80.2b-$79.3b
02/08/22Revisions: CPI
02/09/22MBA Mortgage Applications-8.10%12.00%
02/09/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.10%2.10%
02/09/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.50%1.30%
02/10/22Initial Jobless Claims230k238k
02/10/22Continuing Claims1615k1628k
02/10/22CPI MoM0.40%0.50%0.60%
02/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
02/10/22CPI YoY7.20%7.00%
02/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.90%5.50%
02/10/22CPI Index NSA280.421278.802
02/10/22CPI Core Index SA286.065284.759284.77
02/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.40%-2.00%
02/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-2.30%-2.00%
02/10/22Monthly Budget Statement$21.6b-$21.3b
02/10/22Revisions: PPI
02/11/22Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/11/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6767.2
02/11/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions72.172
02/11/22U. of Mich. Expectations64.564.1
02/11/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%4.90%
02/11/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%

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