January 10, 2020 Headlines

Overnight volumes were low, and the US Treasury curve bull flattened as the market awaited the upcoming December non-farm payroll report. The headline number fell short of expectations at 145k compared to survey estimates of 160k. So far, the reaction has remained muted despite average hourly earnings decelerating to 2.9% YoY and downward revisions to the work week. The overall tone following the report is that the economy is merely slowing and not stalling as we enter 2020.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/6/2020Markit US Services PMI52.252.852.2—
1/6/2020Markit US Composite PMI—52.752.2—
1/7/2020Trade Balance-$43.6b-$43.1b-$47.2b-$46.9b
1/7/2020ISM Non-Manufacturing Index54.55553.9—
1/7/2020Factory Orders-0.80%-0.70%0.30%0.20%
1/7/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans—0.30%0.20%0.30%
1/7/2020Durable Goods Orders-2.00%-2.10%-2.00%—
1/7/2020Durables Ex Transportation—-0.10%0.00%—
1/7/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air—0.20%0.10%—
1/7/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air—-0.30%-0.30%—
1/8/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—13.50%-13.20%—
1/8/2020ADP Employment Change160k202k67k124k
1/8/2020Consumer Credit$16.000b$12.513b$18.908b$18.976b
1/9/2020Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
1/9/2020Initial Jobless Claims220k214k222k223k
1/9/2020Continuing Claims1720k1803k1728k—
1/9/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—65.163.9—
1/10/2020Revisions: Household Survey Data
1/10/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls160k145k266k256k
1/10/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—-14k——
1/10/2020Change in Private Payrolls153k139k254k243k
1/10/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k-12k54k58k
1/10/2020Unemployment Rate3.50%3.50%3.50%—
1/10/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%0.20%0.30%
1/10/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%2.90%3.10%—
1/10/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.334.434.3
1/10/2020Labor Force Participation Rate—63.20%63.20%—
1/10/2020Underemployment Rate—6.70%6.90%—
1/10/2020Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey (Table)
1/10/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%-0.10%0.00%—
1/10/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%1.50%-0.70%-0.90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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