January 10, 2020 Headlines
Overnight volumes were low, and the US Treasury curve bull flattened as the market awaited the upcoming December non-farm payroll report. The headline number fell short of expectations at 145k compared to survey estimates of 160k. So far, the reaction has remained muted despite average hourly earnings decelerating to 2.9% YoY and downward revisions to the work week. The overall tone following the report is that the economy is merely slowing and not stalling as we enter 2020.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
1/6/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 52.2 | 52.8 | 52.2 | — |
1/6/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 52.7 | 52.2 | — |
1/7/2020 | Trade Balance | -$43.6b | -$43.1b | -$47.2b | -$46.9b |
1/7/2020 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 54.5 | 55 | 53.9 | — |
1/7/2020 | Factory Orders | -0.80% | -0.70% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
1/7/2020 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
1/7/2020 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.00% | -2.10% | -2.00% | — |
1/7/2020 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
1/7/2020 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.20% | 0.10% | — |
1/7/2020 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | -0.30% | -0.30% | — |
1/8/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 13.50% | -13.20% | — |
1/8/2020 | ADP Employment Change | 160k | 202k | 67k | 124k |
1/8/2020 | Consumer Credit | $16.000b | $12.513b | $18.908b | $18.976b |
1/9/2020 | Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | ||||
1/9/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 214k | 222k | 223k |
1/9/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1720k | 1803k | 1728k | — |
1/9/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 65.1 | 63.9 | — |
1/10/2020 | Revisions: Household Survey Data | ||||
1/10/2020 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | 145k | 266k | 256k |
1/10/2020 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -14k | — | — |
1/10/2020 | Change in Private Payrolls | 153k | 139k | 254k | 243k |
1/10/2020 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | -12k | 54k | 58k |
1/10/2020 | Unemployment Rate | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | — |
1/10/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
1/10/2020 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.10% | 2.90% | 3.10% | — |
1/10/2020 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.3 |
1/10/2020 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | 63.20% | 63.20% | — |
1/10/2020 | Underemployment Rate | — | 6.70% | 6.90% | — |
1/10/2020 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
1/10/2020 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
1/10/2020 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.20% | 1.50% | -0.70% | -0.90% |
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