January 11, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries continue to lack buying conviction amid heavier supply, particularly in the front-end and belly of the yield curve. Yields are 2-3 basis points higher on the front-end ahead of today’s $52 billion 3-year note auction. It was a relatively quiet overnight session as well as the market awaits tomorrow’s CPI report and a slew of Fed speakers. The latter includes Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing before the Senate, and his prepared remarks simply reiterate a general commitment to “prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.”  Corporate bond issuance is off to a torrid pace in 2022, further fueling the sell-off in Treasuries. Global issuance reached $101 billion in the first week of the year, trailing only $118 billion in 2021 according to Refinitiv records going back 19 years.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/11/2022NFIB Small Business Optimism98.798.998.4—
1/12/2022MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.60%—
1/12/2022CPI MoM0.40%—0.80%—
1/12/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%—0.50%—
1/12/2022CPI YoY7.00%—6.80%—
1/12/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%—4.90%—
1/12/2022CPI Index NSA278.754—277.948—
1/12/2022CPI Core Index SA284.611—283.201—
1/12/2022Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——-1.90%—
1/12/2022Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——-1.90%-1.70%
1/12/2022Monthly Budget Statement-$5.0b—-$191.3b—
1/12/2022U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/13/2022PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%—0.80%—
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%—0.70%—
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%—0.70%—
1/13/2022PPI Final Demand YoY9.80%—9.60%—
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.00%—7.70%—
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.90%—6.90%—
1/13/2022Initial Jobless Claims200k—207k—
1/13/2022Continuing Claims1735k—1754k—
1/14/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%—0.30%—
1/14/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%—0.30%—
1/14/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%—0.20%—
1/14/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.00%—-0.10%—
1/14/2022Import Price Index MoM0.20%—0.70%—
1/14/2022Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%—0.70%—
1/14/2022Import Price Index YoY10.80%—11.70%—
1/14/2022Export Price Index MoM0.30%—1.00%—
1/14/2022Export Price Index YoY16.00%—18.20%—
1/14/2022Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
1/14/2022Industrial Production MoM0.20%—0.50%—
1/14/2022Capacity Utilization77.00%—76.80%—
1/14/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%—0.70%—
1/14/2022Business Inventories1.30%—1.20%—
1/14/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment70—70.6—
1/14/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.5—74.2—
1/14/2022U. of Mich. Expectations66.5—68.3—
1/14/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%—4.80%—
1/14/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.90%—

 

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