January 11, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries continue to lack buying conviction amid heavier supply, particularly in the front-end and belly of the yield curve. Yields are 2-3 basis points higher on the front-end ahead of today’s $52 billion 3-year note auction. It was a relatively quiet overnight session as well as the market awaits tomorrow’s CPI report and a slew of Fed speakers. The latter includes Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing before the Senate, and his prepared remarks simply reiterate a general commitment to “prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.”  Corporate bond issuance is off to a torrid pace in 2022, further fueling the sell-off in Treasuries. Global issuance reached $101 billion in the first week of the year, trailing only $118 billion in 2021 according to Refinitiv records going back 19 years.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

1/11/2022NFIB Small Business Optimism98.798.998.4
1/12/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-5.60%
1/12/2022CPI MoM0.40%0.80%
1/12/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.50%
1/12/2022CPI YoY7.00%6.80%
1/12/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%4.90%
1/12/2022CPI Index NSA278.754277.948
1/12/2022CPI Core Index SA284.611283.201
1/12/2022Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.90%
1/12/2022Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.90%-1.70%
1/12/2022Monthly Budget Statement-$5.0b-$191.3b
1/12/2022U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/13/2022PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.80%
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.70%
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.70%
1/13/2022PPI Final Demand YoY9.80%9.60%
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.00%7.70%
1/13/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.90%6.90%
1/13/2022Initial Jobless Claims200k207k
1/13/2022Continuing Claims1735k1754k
1/14/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%0.30%
1/14/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.30%
1/14/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%0.20%
1/14/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.00%-0.10%
1/14/2022Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.70%
1/14/2022Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.70%
1/14/2022Import Price Index YoY10.80%11.70%
1/14/2022Export Price Index MoM0.30%1.00%
1/14/2022Export Price Index YoY16.00%18.20%
1/14/2022Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
1/14/2022Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.50%
1/14/2022Capacity Utilization77.00%76.80%
1/14/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.70%
1/14/2022Business Inventories1.30%1.20%
1/14/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment7070.6
1/14/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.574.2
1/14/2022U. of Mich. Expectations66.568.3
1/14/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.80%
1/14/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%


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