January 11, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries continue to lack buying conviction amid heavier supply, particularly in the front-end and belly of the yield curve. Yields are 2-3 basis points higher on the front-end ahead of today’s $52 billion 3-year note auction. It was a relatively quiet overnight session as well as the market awaits tomorrow’s CPI report and a slew of Fed speakers. The latter includes Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing before the Senate, and his prepared remarks simply reiterate a general commitment to “prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.” Corporate bond issuance is off to a torrid pace in 2022, further fueling the sell-off in Treasuries. Global issuance reached $101 billion in the first week of the year, trailing only $118 billion in 2021 according to Refinitiv records going back 19 years.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
1/11/2022	NFIB Small Business Optimism	98.7	98.9	98.4	—
1/12/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-5.60%	—
1/12/2022	CPI MoM	0.40%	—	0.80%	—
1/12/2022	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
1/12/2022	CPI YoY	7.00%	—	6.80%	—
1/12/2022	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.40%	—	4.90%	—
1/12/2022	CPI Index NSA	278.754	—	277.948	—
1/12/2022	CPI Core Index SA	284.611	—	283.201	—
1/12/2022	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-1.90%	—
1/12/2022	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-1.90%	-1.70%
1/12/2022	Monthly Budget Statement	-$5.0b	—	-$191.3b	—
1/12/2022	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/13/2022	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.40%	—	0.80%	—
1/13/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
1/13/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	—	0.70%	—
1/13/2022	PPI Final Demand YoY	9.80%	—	9.60%	—
1/13/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.00%	—	7.70%	—
1/13/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.90%	—	6.90%	—
1/13/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	200k	—	207k	—
1/13/2022	Continuing Claims	1735k	—	1754k	—
1/14/2022	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.00%	—	0.30%	—
1/14/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
1/14/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.20%	—	0.20%	—
1/14/2022	Retail Sales Control Group	0.00%	—	-0.10%	—
1/14/2022	Import Price Index MoM	0.20%	—	0.70%	—
1/14/2022	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.60%	—	0.70%	—
1/14/2022	Import Price Index YoY	10.80%	—	11.70%	—
1/14/2022	Export Price Index MoM	0.30%	—	1.00%	—
1/14/2022	Export Price Index YoY	16.00%	—	18.20%	—
1/14/2022	Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
1/14/2022	Industrial Production MoM	0.20%	—	0.50%	—
1/14/2022	Capacity Utilization	77.00%	—	76.80%	—
1/14/2022	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.40%	—	0.70%	—
1/14/2022	Business Inventories	1.30%	—	1.20%	—
1/14/2022	U. of Mich. Sentiment	70	—	70.6	—
1/14/2022	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	73.5	—	74.2	—
1/14/2022	U. of Mich. Expectations	66.5	—	68.3	—
1/14/2022	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.80%	—	4.80%	—
1/14/2022	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.90%	—

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