January 12, 2022 Headlines

The December CPI report was roughly in line with expectations, sending the headline rate to 7% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index rose 0.6% m/m (0.5% expected) and 5.5% y/y (5.4% expected), and it was boosted once again by used vehicle prices (+3.4%) and shelter/housing costs (+0.4%). Treasury yields are actually lower following the release of the report because, although slightly above expectations, the market was bracing for a much larger gain. In other news, the MBA mortgage applications index rose 1.4% last week, led by a 2.2% increase in purchase applications (refi -0.1%). Perhaps more importantly, the average conventional 30-year primary rate was up 20 basis points from late December amid the sell-off in long-end Treasury yields to start the year. On that note, the par-coupon Fannie Mae 30-year MBS rate (i.e., secondary mortgage rate) was up 38 basis points YTD through Monday’s close to 2.45%. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/10/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.20%1.40%1.20%
01/10/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%1.30%2.20%2.50%
01/11/22NFIB Small Business Optimism98.798.998.4
01/12/22MBA Mortgage Applications1.40%-5.60%
01/12/22CPI MoM0.40%0.50%0.80%
01/12/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%0.50%
01/12/22CPI YoY7.00%7.00%6.80%
01/12/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%5.50%4.90%
01/12/22CPI Index NSA278.738278.802277.948
01/12/22CPI Core Index SA284.611284.759283.201
01/12/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-2.30%-1.90%
01/12/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.40%-1.90%-1.70%
01/12/22Monthly Budget Statement-$5.0b-$143.6b
01/12/22U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/13/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.80%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.70%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.70%
01/13/22PPI Final Demand YoY9.80%9.60%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.00%7.70%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.90%6.90%
01/13/22Initial Jobless Claims200k207k
01/13/22Continuing Claims1733k1754k
01/14/22Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.10%0.30%
01/14/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.30%
01/14/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%0.20%
01/14/22Retail Sales Control Group0.00%-0.10%
01/14/22Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.70%
01/14/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.70%
01/14/22Import Price Index YoY10.80%11.70%
01/14/22Export Price Index MoM0.30%1.00%
01/14/22Export Price Index YoY16.00%18.20%
01/14/22Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/14/22Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.50%
01/14/22Capacity Utilization77.00%76.80%
01/14/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.70%
01/14/22Business Inventories1.30%1.20%
01/14/22U. of Mich. Sentiment7070.6
01/14/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.874.2
01/14/22U. of Mich. Expectations6768.3
01/14/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.80%
01/14/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

 

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