The December CPI report was roughly in line with expectations, sending the headline rate to 7% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index rose 0.6% m/m (0.5% expected) and 5.5% y/y (5.4% expected), and it was boosted once again by used vehicle prices (+3.4%) and shelter/housing costs (+0.4%). Treasury yields are actually lower following the release of the report because, although slightly above expectations, the market was bracing for a much larger gain. In other news, the MBA mortgage applications index rose 1.4% last week, led by a 2.2% increase in purchase applications (refi -0.1%). Perhaps more importantly, the average conventional 30-year primary rate was up 20 basis points from late December amid the sell-off in long-end Treasury yields to start the year. On that note, the par-coupon Fannie Mae 30-year MBS rate (i.e., secondary mortgage rate) was up 38 basis points YTD through Monday’s close to 2.45%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/10/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.20% | 1.40% | 1.20% | — |
| 01/10/22 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.00% | 1.30% | 2.20% | 2.50% |
| 01/11/22 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.7 | 98.9 | 98.4 | — |
| 01/12/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.40% | -5.60% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.80% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.50% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI YoY | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.80% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 5.40% | 5.50% | 4.90% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Index NSA | 278.738 | 278.802 | 277.948 | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Core Index SA | 284.611 | 284.759 | 283.201 | — |
| 01/12/22 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | -2.30% | -1.90% | — |
| 01/12/22 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | -2.40% | -1.90% | -1.70% |
| 01/12/22 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$5.0b | — | -$143.6b | — |
| 01/12/22 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/13/22 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 9.80% | — | 9.60% | — |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 8.00% | — | 7.70% | — |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 6.90% | — | 6.90% | — |
| 01/13/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | — | 207k | — |
| 01/13/22 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | — | 1754k | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Import Price Index YoY | 10.80% | — | 11.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Export Price Index YoY | 16.00% | — | 18.20% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/14/22 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Capacity Utilization | 77.00% | — | 76.80% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Business Inventories | 1.30% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70 | — | 70.6 | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.8 | — | 74.2 | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 67 | — | 68.3 | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.80% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
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