Treasuries are finally seeing better two-way flows in the last two trading sessions after moving in just one direction for the first week and a half of the year. Yields are modestly lower across the curve this morning, and U.S. equity futures are little changed a little more than an hour before the open. Lael Brainard will appear before the Senate today for her nomination as Vice Chair of Supervision. The typically dovish governor’s opening statement acknowledges that inflation is “too high” but wants to focus on policies aimed at “sustaining a recovery that includes everyone” while getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target. Another Fed dove, San Francisco bank chief Mary Daly, was the latest to effectively endorse a March rate hike, and even though she is not a voting member this year, March liftoff looks like all but a done deal when even the more dovish Fed leaders are on board.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/10/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.20% | 1.40% | 1.20% | — |
| 01/10/22 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.00% | 1.30% | 2.20% | 2.50% |
| 01/11/22 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.7 | 98.9 | 98.4 | — |
| 01/12/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.40% | -5.60% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.80% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.50% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI YoY | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.80% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 5.40% | 5.50% | 4.90% | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Index NSA | 278.738 | 278.802 | 277.948 | — |
| 01/12/22 | CPI Core Index SA | 284.611 | 284.759 | 283.201 | — |
| 01/12/22 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | -2.30% | -1.90% | — |
| 01/12/22 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | -2.40% | -1.90% | -1.70% |
| 01/12/22 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$5.0b | -$21.3b | -$143.6b | — |
| 01/12/22 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/13/22 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 9.80% | 9.70% | 9.60% | 9.80% |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 8.00% | 8.30% | 7.70% | 7.90% |
| 01/13/22 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 6.90% | 6.90% | 6.90% | — |
| 01/13/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | 230k | 207k | — |
| 01/13/22 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | 1559k | 1754k | 1753k |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Import Price Index YoY | 10.80% | — | 11.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Export Price Index YoY | 16.00% | — | 18.20% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/14/22 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Capacity Utilization | 77.00% | — | 76.80% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/14/22 | Business Inventories | 1.30% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70 | — | 70.6 | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.8 | — | 74.2 | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 67 | — | 68.3 | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.80% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 01/14/22 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
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