January 13, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are finally seeing better two-way flows in the last two trading sessions after moving in just one direction for the first week and a half of the year. Yields are modestly lower across the curve this morning, and U.S. equity futures are little changed a little more than an hour before the open. Lael Brainard will appear before the Senate today for her nomination as Vice Chair of Supervision. The typically dovish governor’s opening statement acknowledges that inflation is “too high” but wants to focus on policies aimed at “sustaining a recovery that includes everyone” while getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target. Another Fed dove, San Francisco bank chief Mary Daly, was the latest to effectively endorse a March rate hike, and even though she is not a voting member this year, March liftoff looks like all but a done deal when even the more dovish Fed leaders are on board. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/10/22Wholesale Inventories MoM1.20%1.40%1.20%
01/10/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%1.30%2.20%2.50%
01/11/22NFIB Small Business Optimism98.798.998.4
01/12/22MBA Mortgage Applications1.40%-5.60%
01/12/22CPI MoM0.40%0.50%0.80%
01/12/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%0.50%
01/12/22CPI YoY7.00%7.00%6.80%
01/12/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%5.50%4.90%
01/12/22CPI Index NSA278.738278.802277.948
01/12/22CPI Core Index SA284.611284.759283.201
01/12/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-2.30%-1.90%
01/12/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.40%-1.90%-1.70%
01/12/22Monthly Budget Statement-$5.0b-$21.3b-$143.6b
01/12/22U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/13/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.20%0.80%1.00%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.50%0.70%0.90%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.40%0.70%0.80%
01/13/22PPI Final Demand YoY9.80%9.70%9.60%9.80%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.00%8.30%7.70%7.90%
01/13/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.90%6.90%6.90%
01/13/22Initial Jobless Claims200k230k207k
01/13/22Continuing Claims1733k1559k1754k1753k
01/14/22Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.10%0.30%
01/14/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.30%
01/14/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%0.20%
01/14/22Retail Sales Control Group0.00%-0.10%
01/14/22Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.70%
01/14/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.70%
01/14/22Import Price Index YoY10.80%11.70%
01/14/22Export Price Index MoM0.30%1.00%
01/14/22Export Price Index YoY16.00%18.20%
01/14/22Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/14/22Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.50%
01/14/22Capacity Utilization77.00%76.80%
01/14/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.70%
01/14/22Business Inventories1.30%1.20%
01/14/22U. of Mich. Sentiment7070.6
01/14/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.874.2
01/14/22U. of Mich. Expectations6768.3
01/14/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.80%
01/14/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%


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