January 14, 2020 Headlines

Both US Treasuries and equity futures are unchanged as trading volumes were light ahead of key events later in the week. On Wednesday, US and Chinese officials are expected to sign the phase one trade deal. According to the US Treasury Department, the agreement addresses concerns regarding competitive currency devaluation and has dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator.

In this morning’s release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation rose less than forecasted with the headline change at .2% MoM. Core CPI missed estimates as well coming in at .1% MoM vs .2% consensus. When looking at inflation, Core CPI is more a more widely used gauge since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The report enforces the Federal Reserve’s view that inflation pressure remains muted.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/13/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$15.0b -$13.3b -$13.5b
1/14/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104.6 102.7 104.7
1/14/2020 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
1/14/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
1/14/2020 CPI YoY 2.40% 2.30% 2.10%
1/14/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
1/14/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.11 265.92 265.62
1/14/2020 CPI Index NSA 257.17 256.97 257.21
1/14/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.00% 1.10% 0.80%
1/14/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.60% 1.10%
1/15/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 13.50%
1/15/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.00%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% -0.20%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.00%
1/15/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.30% 1.10%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.30% 1.30%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.30%
1/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing 3.6 3.5
1/15/2020 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/16/2020 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 3.6 0.3 2.4
1/16/2020 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Import Price Index YoY 0.50% -1.30%
1/16/2020 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Export Price Index YoY -1.30%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.30% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 0.10%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.00%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.10%
1/16/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 218k 214k
1/16/2020 Continuing Claims 1750k 1803k
1/16/2020 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 56.5
1/16/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 65.1
1/16/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% 0.20%
1/16/2020 NAHB Housing Market Index 74 76
1/16/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $32.5b
1/16/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$48.3b
1/17/2020 Housing Starts 1380k 1365k
1/17/2020 Housing Starts MoM 1.10% 3.20%
1/17/2020 Building Permits 1460k 1482k 1482k
1/17/2020 Building Permits MoM -1.50% 1.40% 1.40%
1/17/2020 Industrial Production MoM -0.20% 1.10%
1/17/2020 Capacity Utilization 77.00% 77.30%
1/17/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% 1.10%
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.3 99.3
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.3 115.5
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 89 88.9
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.30%
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.20%
1/17/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 7250 7267

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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