January 14, 2020 Headlines

Both US Treasuries and equity futures are unchanged as trading volumes were light ahead of key events later in the week. On Wednesday, US and Chinese officials are expected to sign the phase one trade deal. According to the US Treasury Department, the agreement addresses concerns regarding competitive currency devaluation and has dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator.

In this morning’s release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation rose less than forecasted with the headline change at .2% MoM. Core CPI missed estimates as well coming in at .1% MoM vs .2% consensus. When looking at inflation, Core CPI is more a more widely used gauge since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. The report enforces the Federal Reserve’s view that inflation pressure remains muted.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/13/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$15.0b -$13.3b -$13.5b
1/14/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104.6 102.7 104.7
1/14/2020 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
1/14/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
1/14/2020 CPI YoY 2.40% 2.30% 2.10%
1/14/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
1/14/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.11 265.92 265.62
1/14/2020 CPI Index NSA 257.17 256.97 257.21
1/14/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.00% 1.10% 0.80%
1/14/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.60% 1.10%
1/15/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 13.50%
1/15/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.00%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% -0.20%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.00%
1/15/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.30% 1.10%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.30% 1.30%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.30%
1/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing 3.6 3.5
1/15/2020 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/16/2020 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 3.6 0.3 2.4
1/16/2020 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Import Price Index YoY 0.50% -1.30%
1/16/2020 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Export Price Index YoY -1.30%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.30% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 0.10%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.00%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.10%
1/16/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 218k 214k
1/16/2020 Continuing Claims 1750k 1803k
1/16/2020 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 56.5
1/16/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 65.1
1/16/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% 0.20%
1/16/2020 NAHB Housing Market Index 74 76
1/16/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $32.5b
1/16/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$48.3b
1/17/2020 Housing Starts 1380k 1365k
1/17/2020 Housing Starts MoM 1.10% 3.20%
1/17/2020 Building Permits 1460k 1482k 1482k
1/17/2020 Building Permits MoM -1.50% 1.40% 1.40%
1/17/2020 Industrial Production MoM -0.20% 1.10%
1/17/2020 Capacity Utilization 77.00% 77.30%
1/17/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% 1.10%
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.3 99.3
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.3 115.5
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 89 88.9
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.30%
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.20%
1/17/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 7250 7267









Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.