January 14, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries yields are drifting higher on reports that President-elect Biden plans to push for close to $2 trillion of additional Covid-19 aid from Congress, more than what was initially expected.  Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida made headlines yesterday when he said, “we are not going to lift off until we get inflation at 2% for a year,” referring to Fed interest rate policy. The comments, perceived as more dovish by many based on inflation forecasts, followed similar sentiments by Fed Governor Brainard’s earlier in the day, when she stated that the economy is still “far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation.” Regarding inflation, it is a relatively high probability that year-over-year measures will rise above the Fed’s 2% target this spring due the base effect, but this is expected to be a temporary phenomenon, something Brainard also acknowledged in her comments yesterday.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/12/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.2 95.9 101.4
01/12/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6450 6527 6652 6632
01/13/21 MBA Mortgage Applications 16.70% 1.70%
01/13/21 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%
01/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
01/13/21 CPI YoY 1.30% 1.40% 1.20%
01/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
01/13/21 CPI Index NSA 260.401 260.474 260.229
01/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.243 270.117 269.887
01/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 3.70% 3.20%
01/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 4.90% 4.70%
01/13/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$143.5b -$143.6b -$13.3b
01/13/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/14/21 Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
01/14/21 Initial Jobless Claims 789k 965k 787k 784k
01/14/21 Continuing Claims 5000k 5271k 5072k
01/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.70% 0.90% 0.10% 0.20%
01/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.40% 0.00%
01/14/21 Import Price Index YoY -0.80% -0.30% -1.00%
01/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 0.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.70%
01/14/21 Export Price Index YoY 0.20% -1.10%
01/14/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.4
01/15/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 0.10%
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10%
01/15/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.80% 0.80%
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.90% 0.90%
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.30% 1.40%
01/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 6 4.9
01/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.00% -1.10%
01/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -0.10% -0.90%
01/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -0.30% -0.80%
01/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 0.10% -0.50%
01/15/21 Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/15/21 Capacity Utilization 73.60% 73.30%
01/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% 0.40%
01/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.50% 0.80%
01/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.70%
01/15/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79.8 80.7
01/15/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 90
01/15/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 74.6
01/15/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50% 2.50%
01/15/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%

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