January 14, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries yields are drifting higher on reports that President-elect Biden plans to push for close to $2 trillion of additional Covid-19 aid from Congress, more than what was initially expected.  Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida made headlines yesterday when he said, “we are not going to lift off until we get inflation at 2% for a year,” referring to Fed interest rate policy. The comments, perceived as more dovish by many based on inflation forecasts, followed similar sentiments by Fed Governor Brainard’s earlier in the day, when she stated that the economy is still “far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation.” Regarding inflation, it is a relatively high probability that year-over-year measures will rise above the Fed’s 2% target this spring due the base effect, but this is expected to be a temporary phenomenon, something Brainard also acknowledged in her comments yesterday.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism100.295.9101.4
01/12/21JOLTS Job Openings6450652766526632
01/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications16.70%1.70%
01/13/21CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
01/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%
01/13/21CPI YoY1.30%1.40%1.20%
01/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.60%1.60%1.60%
01/13/21CPI Index NSA260.401260.474260.229
01/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.243270.117269.887
01/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.70%3.20%
01/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.90%4.70%
01/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$143.5b-$143.6b-$13.3b
01/13/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/14/21Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
01/14/21Initial Jobless Claims789k965k787k784k
01/14/21Continuing Claims5000k5271k5072k
01/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.70%0.90%0.10%0.20%
01/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.40%0.00%
01/14/21Import Price Index YoY-0.80%-0.30%-1.00%
01/14/21Export Price Index MoM0.60%1.10%0.60%0.70%
01/14/21Export Price Index YoY0.20%-1.10%
01/14/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.4
01/15/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Final Demand YoY0.80%0.80%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.90%0.90%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.40%
01/15/21Empire Manufacturing64.9
01/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%-1.10%
01/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%-0.90%
01/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.30%-0.80%
01/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.10%-0.50%
01/15/21Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/15/21Capacity Utilization73.60%73.30%
01/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.40%
01/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.50%0.80%
01/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.70%
01/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.880.7
01/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions90
01/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations74.6
01/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%2.50%
01/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

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