Treasuries yields are drifting higher on reports that President-elect Biden plans to push for close to $2 trillion of additional Covid-19 aid from Congress, more than what was initially expected. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida made headlines yesterday when he said, “we are not going to lift off until we get inflation at 2% for a year,” referring to Fed interest rate policy. The comments, perceived as more dovish by many based on inflation forecasts, followed similar sentiments by Fed Governor Brainard’s earlier in the day, when she stated that the economy is still “far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation.” Regarding inflation, it is a relatively high probability that year-over-year measures will rise above the Fed’s 2% target this spring due the base effect, but this is expected to be a temporary phenomenon, something Brainard also acknowledged in her comments yesterday.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/12/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.2 | 95.9 | 101.4 | — |
| 01/12/21 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6450 | 6527 | 6652 | 6632 |
| 01/13/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 16.70% | 1.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI YoY | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.60% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 260.401 | 260.474 | 260.229 | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.243 | 270.117 | 269.887 | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 3.70% | 3.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.90% | 4.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$143.5b | -$143.6b | -$13.3b | — |
| 01/13/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 789k | 965k | 787k | 784k |
| 01/14/21 | Continuing Claims | 5000k | 5271k | 5072k | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.70% | 0.90% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.80% | -0.30% | -1.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.60% | 1.10% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 0.20% | -1.10% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.4 | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 6 | — | 4.9 | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.30% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 73.60% | — | 73.30% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.8 | — | 80.7 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 90 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 74.6 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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