January 15, 2020 Headlines

The markets struck a risk-off tone before today’s expected signing of the US-China phase one trade deal. While the trade deal marks a positive step between the world’s two largest economy, many issues remain unresolved. Reports yesterday detailed that existing tariffs on $360 billion Chinese goods will stay in place until after the presidential election. The tariffs will have a review period after 10 months and any removal will depend on China’s compliance with the phase-one deal. Currently, US Treasury prices are 2bps higher and the S&P500 is set to open -.21%.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/13/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$15.0b -$13.3b -$13.5b
1/14/2020 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104.6 102.7 104.7
1/14/2020 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
1/14/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
1/14/2020 CPI YoY 2.40% 2.30% 2.10%
1/14/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
1/14/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.11 265.92 265.62
1/14/2020 CPI Index NSA 257.17 256.97 257.21
1/14/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.00% 1.10% 0.80%
1/14/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.60% 1.10%
1/15/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 30.20% 13.50%
1/15/2020 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% -0.20%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
1/15/2020 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.30% 1.30% 1.10%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.30% 1.10% 1.30%
1/15/2020 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.50% 1.30%
1/15/2020 Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing
1/15/2020 Empire Manufacturing 3.6 4.8 3.5 3.3
1/15/2020 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/16/2020 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 3.6 0.3 2.4
1/16/2020 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Import Price Index YoY 0.50% -1.30%
1/16/2020 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Export Price Index YoY -1.30%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.30% 0.20%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 0.10%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.00%
1/16/2020 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.10%
1/16/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 218k 214k
1/16/2020 Continuing Claims 1750k 1803k
1/16/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 65.1
1/16/2020 Business Inventories -0.20% 0.20%
1/16/2020 NAHB Housing Market Index 74 76
1/16/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows $32.5b
1/16/2020 Total Net TIC Flows -$48.3b
1/17/2020 Housing Starts 1380k 1365k
1/17/2020 Housing Starts MoM 1.10% 3.20%
1/17/2020 Building Permits 1460k 1482k 1482k
1/17/2020 Building Permits MoM -1.50% 1.40% 1.40%
1/17/2020 Industrial Production MoM -0.20% 1.10%
1/17/2020 Capacity Utilization 77.00% 77.30%
1/17/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% 1.10%
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.3 99.3
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.3 115.5
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 89 88.9
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.30%
1/17/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.20%
1/17/2020 JOLTS Job Openings 7250 7267



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