January 15, 2020 Headlines

The markets struck a risk-off tone before today’s expected signing of the US-China phase one trade deal. While the trade deal marks a positive step between the world’s two largest economy, many issues remain unresolved. Reports yesterday detailed that existing tariffs on $360 billion Chinese goods will stay in place until after the presidential election. The tariffs will have a review period after 10 months and any removal will depend on China’s compliance with the phase-one deal. Currently, US Treasury prices are 2bps higher and the S&P500 is set to open -.21%.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
1/13/2020	Monthly Budget Statement	-$15.0b	-$13.3b	-$13.5b	—
1/14/2020	NFIB Small Business Optimism	104.6	102.7	104.7	—
1/14/2020	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.30%	—
1/14/2020	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.20%	—
1/14/2020	CPI YoY	2.40%	2.30%	2.10%	—
1/14/2020	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	—
1/14/2020	CPI Core Index SA	266.11	265.92	265.62	—
1/14/2020	CPI Index NSA	257.17	256.97	257.21	—
1/14/2020	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	0.00%	1.10%	0.80%
1/14/2020	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	0.60%	1.10%	—
1/15/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	30.20%	13.50%	—
1/15/2020	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.00%	—
1/15/2020	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.10%	-0.20%	—
1/15/2020	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.00%	—
1/15/2020	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.30%	1.30%	1.10%	—
1/15/2020	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.30%	1.10%	1.30%	—
1/15/2020	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	1.50%	1.30%	—
1/15/2020	Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing
1/15/2020	Empire Manufacturing	3.6	4.8	3.5	3.3
1/15/2020	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/16/2020	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	3.6	—	0.3	2.4
1/16/2020	Import Price Index MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
1/16/2020	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
1/16/2020	Import Price Index YoY	0.50%	—	-1.30%	—
1/16/2020	Export Price Index MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
1/16/2020	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-1.30%	—
1/16/2020	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
1/16/2020	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
1/16/2020	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	0.00%	—
1/16/2020	Retail Sales Control Group	0.40%	—	0.10%	—
1/16/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	218k	—	214k	—
1/16/2020	Continuing Claims	1750k	—	1803k	—
1/16/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	65.1	—
1/16/2020	Business Inventories	-0.20%	—	0.20%	—
1/16/2020	NAHB Housing Market Index	74	—	76	—
1/16/2020	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$32.5b	—
1/16/2020	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	-$48.3b	—
1/17/2020	Housing Starts	1380k	—	1365k	—
1/17/2020	Housing Starts MoM	1.10%	—	3.20%	—
1/17/2020	Building Permits	1460k	—	1482k	1482k
1/17/2020	Building Permits MoM	-1.50%	—	1.40%	1.40%
1/17/2020	Industrial Production MoM	-0.20%	—	1.10%	—
1/17/2020	Capacity Utilization	77.00%	—	77.30%	—
1/17/2020	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.10%	—	1.10%	—
1/17/2020	U. of Mich. Sentiment	99.3	—	99.3	—
1/17/2020	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	115.3	—	115.5	—
1/17/2020	U. of Mich. Expectations	89	—	88.9	—
1/17/2020	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—
1/17/2020	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.20%	—
1/17/2020	JOLTS Job Openings	7250	—	7267	—

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