January 15, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are taking pause this morning on concerns that Biden’s ambitious $1.9 trillion stimulus package will face greater challenges in Congress due to the costs. For equity markets, investors are also weighing the obvious benefits of immediate stimulus versus the likelihood of higher interest rates and taxes in the intermediate term, both of which can act as a cap on valuations. Long-end Treasury yields are down 3-4 basis points on day.

The December retail sales report disappointed versus expectations, with headline sales falling 0.7% on the month versus expectations of no change. Excluding autos, sales fell 1.4% (-0.2% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 1.9% in December versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. This is a tough report for the economy, but it’s not totally surprising given the renewed lockdowns amid the Covid resurgence. The November figures were also revised lower, and many economists will be revising down their Q4 GDP forecasts after this report (and probably some Q1 2021 forecasts as well).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism100.295.9101.4
01/12/21JOLTS Job Openings6450652766526632
01/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications16.70%1.70%
01/13/21CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
01/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%
01/13/21CPI YoY1.30%1.40%1.20%
01/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.60%1.60%1.60%
01/13/21CPI Index NSA260.401260.474260.229
01/13/21CPI Core Index SA270.243270.117269.887
01/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.70%3.20%
01/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.90%4.70%
01/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$143.5b-$143.6b-$13.3b
01/13/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/14/21Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
01/14/21Initial Jobless Claims789k965k787k784k
01/14/21Continuing Claims5000k5271k5072k
01/14/21Import Price Index MoM0.70%0.90%0.10%0.20%
01/14/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.40%0.00%
01/14/21Import Price Index YoY-0.80%-0.30%-1.00%
01/14/21Export Price Index MoM0.60%1.10%0.60%0.70%
01/14/21Export Price Index YoY0.20%-1.10%
01/14/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.244.4
01/15/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.30%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.10%
01/15/21PPI Final Demand YoY0.80%0.80%0.80%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.20%1.40%
01/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.90%1.10%0.90%
01/15/21Empire Manufacturing63.54.9
01/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%-0.70%-1.10%-1.40%
01/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.20%-1.40%-0.90%-1.30%
01/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.30%-2.10%-0.80%-1.30%
01/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.10%-1.90%-0.50%-1.10%
01/15/21Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/15/21Capacity Utilization73.60%73.30%
01/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.40%
01/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.50%0.80%
01/15/21Business Inventories0.50%0.70%
01/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.580.7
01/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8790
01/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations7474.6
01/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%2.50%
01/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

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