January 15, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are taking pause this morning on concerns that Biden’s ambitious $1.9 trillion stimulus package will face greater challenges in Congress due to the costs. For equity markets, investors are also weighing the obvious benefits of immediate stimulus versus the likelihood of higher interest rates and taxes in the intermediate term, both of which can act as a cap on valuations. Long-end Treasury yields are down 3-4 basis points on day.

The December retail sales report disappointed versus expectations, with headline sales falling 0.7% on the month versus expectations of no change. Excluding autos, sales fell 1.4% (-0.2% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 1.9% in December versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. This is a tough report for the economy, but it’s not totally surprising given the renewed lockdowns amid the Covid resurgence. The November figures were also revised lower, and many economists will be revising down their Q4 GDP forecasts after this report (and probably some Q1 2021 forecasts as well).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/12/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.2 95.9 101.4 —
01/12/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6450 6527 6652 6632
01/13/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — 16.70% 1.70% —
01/13/21 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% —
01/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% —
01/13/21 CPI YoY 1.30% 1.40% 1.20% —
01/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% —
01/13/21 CPI Index NSA 260.401 260.474 260.229 —
01/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.243 270.117 269.887 —
01/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — 3.70% 3.20% —
01/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — 4.90% 4.70% —
01/13/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$143.5b -$143.6b -$13.3b —
01/13/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/14/21 Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
01/14/21 Initial Jobless Claims 789k 965k 787k 784k
01/14/21 Continuing Claims 5000k 5271k 5072k —
01/14/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.70% 0.90% 0.10% 0.20%
01/14/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.40% 0.00% —
01/14/21 Import Price Index YoY -0.80% -0.30% -1.00% —
01/14/21 Export Price Index MoM 0.60% 1.10% 0.60% 0.70%
01/14/21 Export Price Index YoY — 0.20% -1.10% —
01/14/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 43.2 44.4 —
01/15/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 0.30% 0.10% —
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.10% —
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.10% —
01/15/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% —
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.30% 1.20% 1.40% —
01/15/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.90% 1.10% 0.90% —
01/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 6 3.5 4.9 —
01/15/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.00% -0.70% -1.10% -1.40%
01/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -0.20% -1.40% -0.90% -1.30%
01/15/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -0.30% -2.10% -0.80% -1.30%
01/15/21 Retail Sales Control Group 0.10% -1.90% -0.50% -1.10%
01/15/21 Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/15/21 Capacity Utilization 73.60% — 73.30% —
01/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% — 0.40% —
01/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.50% — 0.80% —
01/15/21 Business Inventories 0.50% — 0.70% —
01/15/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79.5 — 80.7 —
01/15/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 87 — 90 —
01/15/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 74 — 74.6 —
01/15/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50% — 2.50% —
01/15/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.50% —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.