Risk markets are taking pause this morning on concerns that Biden’s ambitious $1.9 trillion stimulus package will face greater challenges in Congress due to the costs. For equity markets, investors are also weighing the obvious benefits of immediate stimulus versus the likelihood of higher interest rates and taxes in the intermediate term, both of which can act as a cap on valuations. Long-end Treasury yields are down 3-4 basis points on day.
The December retail sales report disappointed versus expectations, with headline sales falling 0.7% on the month versus expectations of no change. Excluding autos, sales fell 1.4% (-0.2% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 1.9% in December versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. This is a tough report for the economy, but it’s not totally surprising given the renewed lockdowns amid the Covid resurgence. The November figures were also revised lower, and many economists will be revising down their Q4 GDP forecasts after this report (and probably some Q1 2021 forecasts as well).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/12/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.2 | 95.9 | 101.4 | — |
| 01/12/21 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6450 | 6527 | 6652 | 6632 |
| 01/13/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 16.70% | 1.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI YoY | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.60% | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 260.401 | 260.474 | 260.229 | — |
| 01/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.243 | 270.117 | 269.887 | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 3.70% | 3.20% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.90% | 4.70% | — |
| 01/13/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$143.5b | -$143.6b | -$13.3b | — |
| 01/13/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey | ||||
| 01/14/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 789k | 965k | 787k | 784k |
| 01/14/21 | Continuing Claims | 5000k | 5271k | 5072k | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.70% | 0.90% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.80% | -0.30% | -1.00% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.60% | 1.10% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 01/14/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 0.20% | -1.10% | — |
| 01/14/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 43.2 | 44.4 | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 0.90% | 1.10% | 0.90% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 6 | 3.5 | 4.9 | — |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | -0.70% | -1.10% | -1.40% |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.20% | -1.40% | -0.90% | -1.30% |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.30% | -2.10% | -0.80% | -1.30% |
| 01/15/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | -1.90% | -0.50% | -1.10% |
| 01/15/21 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 73.60% | — | 73.30% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/15/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.5 | — | 80.7 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 87 | — | 90 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 74 | — | 74.6 | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 01/15/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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