Treasury prices are modestly higher in the belly and long-end of the curve, and most major equity indices are higher on the day (S&P 500  , Nikkei +1.0%, Euro Stoxx +0.5%). There are no major headlines boosting risk markets today, but at this point, a lack of negative news is enough to maintain positive momentum. There is still some anxiousness in European markets following last week’s hawkish comments from some ECB members regarding the future of the central bank’s QE program. Another ECB leader said Sunday that “it would certainly be conseivable and also appropriate” to end the current program in September if growth and inflation are in line with projections. Germany’s 2-year yield is up 20 bps over the last month to a 19-month high of -0.55% (yes, still more than 50 bps negative after a 20 bps increase).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/16Empire Manufacturing1917.71819.6
01/16Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing    
01/17MBA Mortgage Applications8.30%
01/17Industrial Production MoM0.40%0.20%
01/17Capacity Utilization77.40%77.10%
01/17Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.20%
01/17NAHB Housing Market Index7274
01/17U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/17Total Net TIC Flows$151.2b
01/17Net Long-term TIC Flows$23.2b
01/18Housing Starts1275k1297k
01/18Housing Starts MoM-1.70%3.30%
01/18Building Permits1295k1298k1303k
01/18Building Permits MoM-0.60%-1.40%-1.00%
01/18Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook24.826.227.9
01/18Initial Jobless Claims250k261k
01/18Continuing Claims1900k1867k
01/18Bloomberg Economic Expectations47
01/18Bloomberg Consumer Comfort53.5
01/19U. of Mich. Sentiment9795.9
01/19U. of Mich. Expectations85.384.3
01/19U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
01/19U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
01/19U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4113.8