January 16, 2020 Headlines

After 18 months of negotiation, the initial reaction to a phase one trade deal between the US and China was muted. Reports ahead of the signing detailed that existing tariffs on $360 billion Chinese goods will stay in place until after the presidential election as a tool to ensure compliance. China has agreed to purchase 200 billion in US goods and commit to change practices regarding forced technology transfer in exchange for reduced US tariffs. Even with the accord in place, there continues to be unresolved issues between the world’s two largest economy’s as the focus now shifts to subsequent negotiations expected that are expected to begin in the next few weeks.

Retail sales rose .3% MoM in December, in line with consensus expectations.  The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, increased to .5% MoM from .1% in November. Due to the late Thanksgiving holiday timing, November sales were subtracted to the benefit of December. When looking at the whole quarter, retail sales growth declined to 2.2% compared to 5.7% seen in the third quarter. This morning, US equites are sitting at all time highs and Treasury yields up 2 basis points.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

1/13/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$15.0b-$13.3b-$13.5b
1/14/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism104.6102.7104.7
1/14/2020CPI MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%
1/14/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
1/14/2020CPI YoY2.40%2.30%2.10%
1/14/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%2.30%
1/14/2020CPI Core Index SA266.11265.92265.62
1/14/2020CPI Index NSA257.17256.97257.21
1/14/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.00%1.10%0.80%
1/14/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.60%1.10%
1/15/2020MBA Mortgage Applications30.20%13.50%
1/15/2020PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
1/15/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%-0.20%
1/15/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
1/15/2020PPI Final Demand YoY1.30%1.30%1.10%
1/15/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.10%1.30%
1/15/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.50%1.30%
1/15/2020Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing
1/15/2020Empire Manufacturing3.
1/15/2020U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
1/16/2020Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook3.8170.32.4
1/16/2020Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%0.10%
1/16/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.20%0.20%0.10%
1/16/2020Import Price Index YoY0.50%0.50%-1.30%
1/16/2020Export Price Index MoM0.20%-0.20%0.20%
1/16/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.70%-1.30%-1.20%
1/16/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%0.30%
1/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.70%0.10%0.00%
1/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.50%0.00%-0.20%
1/16/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%0.10%-0.10%
1/16/2020Initial Jobless Claims218k204k214k
1/16/2020Continuing Claims1750k1767k1803k1804k
1/16/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort6665.1
1/16/2020Business Inventories-0.20%-0.20%0.20%0.10%
1/16/2020NAHB Housing Market Index747576
1/16/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows$32.5b
1/16/2020Total Net TIC Flows-$48.3b
1/17/2020Housing Starts1380k1365k
1/17/2020Housing Starts MoM1.10%3.20%
1/17/2020Building Permits1460k1482k1482k
1/17/2020Building Permits MoM-1.50%1.40%1.40%
1/17/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%1.10%
1/17/2020Capacity Utilization77.00%77.30%
1/17/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%1.10%
1/17/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.399.3
1/17/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.3115.5
1/17/2020U. of Mich. Expectations8988.9
1/17/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.30%
1/17/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.20%
1/17/2020JOLTS Job Openings72507267




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