Treasury prices are slightly lower across the curve, pressured somewhat by global supply of long-end debt. There was a recent article quoting anonymous Chinese officials that suggested the country would be reducing its Treasury holdings, and the market will more closely scrutinize the Treasury Department’s TIC report this afternoon for any signs of reduced purchases by the Chinese. S&P 500 futures are up another 9 points ahead of today’s open, but the index closed down 0.35% yesterday despite futures being up by a similar amount yesterday morning. That said, the S&P 500 is still on pace for the best month since March 2016.  Equity investors are paying close attention to the trend in long-end Treasury yields, and there is a concern that a significant increase in the 10-year yield (i.e., breaking through the current range) in the coming days/weeks will likely spark at least a modest correct in current equity valuations. In the first installment of Barron’s Roundtable series with top investors, bond yields were listed as one of the major risks facing equities.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
01/16/2018Empire Manufacturing1917.718
01/16/2018Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing
01/17/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%8.30%
01/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.20%
01/17/2018Capacity Utilization77.40%77.10%
01/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.20%
01/17/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7274
01/17/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book   
01/17/2018Total Net TIC Flows$151.2b
01/17/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$23.2b
01/18/2018Housing Starts1275k1297k
01/18/2018Housing Starts MoM-1.70%3.30%
01/18/2018Building Permits1295k1298k
01/18/2018Building Permits MoM-0.60%-1.40%
01/18/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2526.2
01/18/2018Initial Jobless Claims249k261k
43118.3541Continuing Claims1900k1867k
01/18/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations47
01/18/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort53.5
01/19/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9795.9
01/19/2018U. of Mich. Expectations85.384.3
01/19/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
01/19/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
01/19/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4113.8
01/22/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.15
01/23/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1820
01/24/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%
01/24/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.50%
01/24/2018Markit US Composite PMI54.1
01/24/2018Markit US Services PMI53.7
01/24/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI5555.1
01/24/2018Existing Home Sales MoM-2.30%5.60%
01/24/2018Existing Home Sales5.68m5.81m