Treasury prices are slightly lower across the curve, pressured somewhat by global supply of long-end debt. There was a recent article quoting anonymous Chinese officials that suggested the country would be reducing its Treasury holdings, and the market will more closely scrutinize the Treasury Department’s TIC report this afternoon for any signs of reduced purchases by the Chinese. S&P 500 futures are up another 9 points ahead of today’s open, but the index closed down 0.35% yesterday despite futures being up by a similar amount yesterday morning. That said, the S&P 500 is still on pace for the best month since March 2016. Equity investors are paying close attention to the trend in long-end Treasury yields, and there is a concern that a significant increase in the 10-year yield (i.e., breaking through the current range) in the coming days/weeks will likely spark at least a modest correct in current equity valuations. In the first installment of Barron’s Roundtable series with top investors, bond yields were listed as one of the major risks facing equities.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 01/16/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 19 | 17.7 | 18 |
| 01/16/2018 | Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing | |||
| 01/17/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.10% | 8.30% |
| 01/17/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.20% |
| 01/17/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | — | 77.10% |
| 01/17/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 01/17/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 74 |
| 01/17/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 01/17/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $151.2b |
| 01/17/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $23.2b |
| 01/18/2018 | Housing Starts | 1275k | — | 1297k |
| 01/18/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.70% | — | 3.30% |
| 01/18/2018 | Building Permits | 1295k | — | 1298k |
| 01/18/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -0.60% | — | -1.40% |
| 01/18/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 25 | — | 26.2 |
| 01/18/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 249k | — | 261k |
| 43118.3541 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | — | 1867k |
| 01/18/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 47 |
| 01/18/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 53.5 |
| 01/19/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97 | — | 95.9 |
| 01/19/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85.3 | — | 84.3 |
| 01/19/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 01/19/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |
| 01/19/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 114.4 | — | 113.8 |
| 01/22/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.15 |
| 01/23/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 18 | — | 20 |
| 01/24/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.10% |
| 01/24/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% |
| 01/24/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.1 |
| 01/24/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | — | — | 53.7 |
| 01/24/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55 | — | 55.1 |
| 01/24/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.30% | — | 5.60% |
| 01/24/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.68m | — | 5.81m |