Treasuries sold off last night following increased Eurobond supply as well as the fear that Apple would have to sell Treasuries in order to fund its $38 billion repatriation tax bill. Additionally, TIC data for November showed that China had reduced its holdings to the lowest level since July and that Japan had hit a 4-year low. Given that this data was from November, it is unlikely this reduction had anything to do with recent trade tensions, but given the flattening experienced from then onward, it is possible that China and Japan are continuing to reduce their holdings.
Housing starts came in below expectations but are in line with pre-hurricane levels and the decline in the rate is possibly due to normalization after the surge seen in October and November.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/16 | Empire Manufacturing | 19 | 17.7 | 18 | 19.6 |
| 01/16 | Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing | ||||
| 01/17 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.10% | 8.30% | — |
| 01/17 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | 0.90% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 01/17 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | 77.90% | 77.10% | 77.20% |
| 01/17 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 01/17 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | 72 | 74 | — |
| 01/17 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/17 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $33.8b | $151.2b | $152.9b |
| 01/17 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $57.5b | $23.2b | $26.2b |
| 01/18 | Housing Starts | 1275k | 1192k | 1297k | 1299k |
| 01/18 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.70% | -8.20% | 3.30% | 3.00% |
| 01/18 | Building Permits | 1295k | 1302k | 1298k | 1303k |
| 01/18 | Building Permits MoM | -0.60% | -0.10% | -1.40% | -1.00% |
| 01/18 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 25 | 22.2 | 26.2 | 27.9 |
| 01/18 | Initial Jobless Claims | 249k | 220k | 261k | — |
| 01/18 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | 1952k | 1867k | 1876k |
| 01/18 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | 52.5 | 47 | — |
| 01/18 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 53.8 | 53.5 | — |
| 01/19 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97 | — | 95.9 | — |
| 01/19 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85.3 | — | 84.3 | — |
| 01/19 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 01/19 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 01/19 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 114.4 | — | 113.8 | — |