Treasuries opened this morning essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close, while in the overnight session, the 10-year touched 2.64 for the first time since 2014. Despite the drama in Washington, equity markets chose to ignore the uncertainty coming from the capital and rallied instead. The House was able to pass a short-term funding bill late last night, but its prospects  in the Senate look dire as Democrats want to link DACA with the funding extension, while a couple of Republicans who oppose an increase in government spending have come out as no votes. Federal funding is set to expire tonight at midnight and the government will shut down non-essential operations for the first time since 2013.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/16 Empire Manufacturing 19 17.7 18 19.6
01/16 Revisions: NY Federal Reserve Empire Manufacturing
01/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.10% 8.30%
01/17 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% 0.90% 0.20% -0.10%
01/17 Capacity Utilization 77.40% 77.90% 77.10% 77.20%
01/17 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30%
01/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 72 72 74
01/17 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
01/17 Total Net TIC Flows $33.8b $151.2b $152.9b
01/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows $57.5b $23.2b $26.2b
01/18 Housing Starts 1275k 1192k 1297k 1299k
01/18 Housing Starts MoM -1.70% -8.20% 3.30% 3.00%
01/18 Building Permits 1295k 1302k 1298k 1303k
01/18 Building Permits MoM -0.60% -0.10% -1.40% -1.00%
01/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 25 22.2 26.2 27.9
01/18 Initial Jobless Claims 249k 220k 261k
01/18 Continuing Claims 1900k 1952k 1867k 1876k
01/18 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 52.5 47
01/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 53.8 53.5
01/19 U. of Mich. Sentiment 97 95.9
01/19 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 114.4 113.8
01/19 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.3 84.3
01/19 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
01/19 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.40%