January 20, 2021 Headlines

A positive tone in risk markets overnight is contributing to slightly higher long-end Treasury yields this morning. U.S. equity futures are up 38-97 bps ahead of the open, with tech leading the way, and the 10-year yield is holding near 1.10%.  The MBA mortgage applications index fell 1.9% last week, fueled by a 4.7% decline in refinance applications (purchase apps +2.7%). The MBA’s survey shows a 6 basis point increase in the average 30-year conventional rate in the first two weeks of January, or 30% of the increase in the 10-year yield over that same period. The spread between the rate at which a mortgage originator can lend and the rate at which that lender can sell that mortgage remains above historical averages, which gives those originators more pricing flexibility as rates rise.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/19/21Total Net TIC Flows$214.1b-$10.4b-$11.1b
01/19/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$149.2b$51.9b
01/20/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%16.70%
01/20/21NAHB Housing Market Index8686
01/21/21Housing Starts1560k1547k
01/21/21Housing Starts MoM0.80%1.20%
01/21/21Building Permits1605k1639k1635k
01/21/21Building Permits MoM-1.80%6.20%5.90%
01/21/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook11.511.19.1
01/21/21Initial Jobless Claims935k965k
01/21/21Continuing Claims5300k5271k
01/21/21Bloomberg Economic Expectations38.5
01/21/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.2
01/22/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.557.1
01/22/21Markit US Composite PMI55.3
01/22/21Markit US Services PMI53.454.8
01/22/21Existing Home Sales6.55m6.69m
01/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-2.10%-2.50%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.