A positive tone in risk markets overnight is contributing to slightly higher long-end Treasury yields this morning. U.S. equity futures are up 38-97 bps ahead of the open, with tech leading the way, and the 10-year yield is holding near 1.10%. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 1.9% last week, fueled by a 4.7% decline in refinance applications (purchase apps +2.7%). The MBA’s survey shows a 6 basis point increase in the average 30-year conventional rate in the first two weeks of January, or 30% of the increase in the 10-year yield over that same period. The spread between the rate at which a mortgage originator can lend and the rate at which that lender can sell that mortgage remains above historical averages, which gives those originators more pricing flexibility as rates rise.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/19/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $214.1b | -$10.4b | -$11.1b |
| 01/19/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $149.2b | $51.9b | — |
| 01/20/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.90% | 16.70% | — |
| 01/20/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 86 | — | 86 | — |
| 01/21/21 | Housing Starts | 1560k | — | 1547k | — |
| 01/21/21 | Housing Starts MoM | 0.80% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 01/21/21 | Building Permits | 1605k | — | 1639k | 1635k |
| 01/21/21 | Building Permits MoM | -1.80% | — | 6.20% | 5.90% |
| 01/21/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 11.5 | — | 11.1 | 9.1 |
| 01/21/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 935k | — | 965k | — |
| 01/21/21 | Continuing Claims | 5300k | — | 5271k | — |
| 01/21/21 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 38.5 | — |
| 01/21/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 43.2 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.5 | — | 57.1 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.3 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 53.4 | — | 54.8 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Existing Home Sales | 6.55m | — | 6.69m | — |
| 01/22/21 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.10% | — | -2.50% | — |
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