January 21, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are moving higher and steeper after the ECB pledged to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary policies for as long as needed.  A Bloomberg article reports that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal faces resistance from moderate Republican senators he would likely need support from to get the bill passed. Senators Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski are both expressing reservations of pursuing such a large aid package so soon after what Congress already passed in December. “The ink is just barely dry on the $900 billion, and what the president is proposing is significant — $1.9 trillion,” said Murkowski.

There were several economic releases this morning, which were generally better than expected. Jobless claims were improved, and housing starts also exceeded expectations in December. Regarding the latter, single-family starts surged 12% to a 1.34-million-unit annual pace, the highest since 2006. Single-family starts totaled 991,200 for 2020, also a post-2006 record.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/19/21 Total Net TIC Flows $214.1b -$10.4b -$11.1b
01/19/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows $149.2b $51.9b
01/20/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.90% 16.70%
01/20/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 86 83 86
01/21/21 Housing Starts 1560k 1669k 1547k 1578k
01/21/21 Housing Starts MoM 0.80% 5.80% 1.20% 3.10%
01/21/21 Building Permits 1608k 1709k 1639k 1635k
01/21/21 Building Permits MoM -1.70% 4.50% 6.20% 5.90%
01/21/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 11.8 26.5 11.1 9.1
01/21/21 Initial Jobless Claims 935k 900k 965k 926k
01/21/21 Continuing Claims 5300k 5054k 5271k 5181k
01/21/21 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 38.5
01/21/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.2
01/22/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.5 57.1
01/22/21 Markit US Composite PMI 55.3
01/22/21 Markit US Services PMI 53.4 54.8
01/22/21 Existing Home Sales 6.56m 6.69m
01/22/21 Existing Home Sales MoM -2.00% -2.50%

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