Treasury yields are moving higher and steeper after the ECB pledged to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary policies for as long as needed. A Bloomberg article reports that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal faces resistance from moderate Republican senators he would likely need support from to get the bill passed. Senators Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski are both expressing reservations of pursuing such a large aid package so soon after what Congress already passed in December. “The ink is just barely dry on the $900 billion, and what the president is proposing is significant — $1.9 trillion,” said Murkowski.
There were several economic releases this morning, which were generally better than expected. Jobless claims were improved, and housing starts also exceeded expectations in December. Regarding the latter, single-family starts surged 12% to a 1.34-million-unit annual pace, the highest since 2006. Single-family starts totaled 991,200 for 2020, also a post-2006 record.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/19/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $214.1b | -$10.4b | -$11.1b |
| 01/19/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $149.2b | $51.9b | — |
| 01/20/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.90% | 16.70% | — |
| 01/20/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 86 | 83 | 86 | — |
| 01/21/21 | Housing Starts | 1560k | 1669k | 1547k | 1578k |
| 01/21/21 | Housing Starts MoM | 0.80% | 5.80% | 1.20% | 3.10% |
| 01/21/21 | Building Permits | 1608k | 1709k | 1639k | 1635k |
| 01/21/21 | Building Permits MoM | -1.70% | 4.50% | 6.20% | 5.90% |
| 01/21/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 11.8 | 26.5 | 11.1 | 9.1 |
| 01/21/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 935k | 900k | 965k | 926k |
| 01/21/21 | Continuing Claims | 5300k | 5054k | 5271k | 5181k |
| 01/21/21 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 38.5 | — |
| 01/21/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 43.2 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.5 | — | 57.1 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.3 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 53.4 | — | 54.8 | — |
| 01/22/21 | Existing Home Sales | 6.56m | — | 6.69m | — |
| 01/22/21 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.00% | — | -2.50% | — |
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